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两场雪灾,三十年间隔

熊蕾

2008年2月14日

30年前暴雪曾肆虐北美,如今中国又遭雪灾袭击。关于复原和发展,这两场雪灾能告诉我们什么呢?熊蕾期望从中找到答案。

“我们寻求的现代化应当提高我们应付这种雪灾的能力,而不是让我们更加不堪一击。”

在中国全力以赴抗击记忆中最严重的一场雪灾的时候,美国有很多人在纪念另一场雪灾30周年。真是有点巧合。

这场“白色飓风”史称“1978大暴雪”,在30年前的1月底和2月初席卷北美,使很多美国人数天甚至数星期断电、断暖、断交通。人们陷在家里或办公室里,或者陷在公路上。好几个州宣布进入“紧急状态”,调动了国民卫队救援陷在公路上的人。

经历过那次暴雪的很多美国人至今都忘不了那场灾害。相信此次中国雪灾的经历者也不会忘却此番体验。

据记载,1978年暴雪仅给马萨诸塞一州就造成5亿美元的损失。现在还不清楚雪灾会给中国造成多少损失,但是肯定对我们的打击要重得多,因为这是在我们最重要的家庭团聚日——农历新年之前,正值一年中人口流动的高峰期。

然而,比较两场雪灾可能没有什么意义。值得注意的是,跨越了30年的这两场雪灾,对我们人类提出了同一个问题。

很多人认为,最近这场雪灾暴露出中国繁荣经济的脆弱性。很显然,极端的天气打了中国政府和老百姓一个猝不及防,加重了我们的电力短缺、交通拥堵和通货膨胀。

类似的景象在1978大暴雪中也比比皆是。一些食品要定量供应。在灾区,很多人在暴雪过去之后的一个星期仍然没有供热、供水、供电,也没有食品供应。学校也关闭了好几个星期。

然而,即使30年前,美国作为一个发达的超级大国,条件也要比今天的中国好很多。而暴雪袭击的北美各州无论如何,处理冰雪的设施也要比最近这场雪灾中的中国南方数省先进。

尽管如此,美国肯特州大学气象历史学家、地理系教授托马斯·施密特林在1978年暴雪25年之后也曾经这样评论说:“以我们拥有汽车、电力、供暖的舒适,我们可能比19世纪的俄亥俄人对这些暴雪更脆弱,他们反而更有独立性,能够经受几天的破坏。”

对于中美两国来说,这可能真是让人不舒服的真相。虽然我们的发展水平不同,但是我们在天灾面前似乎同样无能为力。我们的现代基础设施在极端天气之作用之下似乎瘫痪了。

在中国南方,人们在英勇地抗击雪灾。然而他们只能是将损失降至最低,而不能首先保护他们自己。即使在雪灾之后,这些基础设施得到改善,我们也很难保证,再有恶劣的天气时,高速公路不会关闭,航班不会取消,铁路交通也不会受到影响。

如果我们如此依赖的现代性如此容易受到自然气候的影响,难道我们不需要反思一下我们的这种依赖已经到达何种地步了吗?当你唯一的取暖方式是靠电,而火力发电站又关闭了的时候,你该怎么办?

我们当然不能为了避免极端天气的打击而回到石器时代。但是,如果对那些已经证明在雪灾中异常脆弱的交通线、通讯线,我们仍没有任何替代方案,那才会是真正的灾难。

或许,在这次雪灾中发挥了作用的内燃机车可以给我们一些启示。当电力中断使电气机车无能为力时,内燃机车作为“摆渡机车”将火车开出了险境。

在正常状态下,所有的人都会认为电气机车比内燃机车“先进”,但在这场灾难中并非如此。

这两场雪灾都给我们提出了同样的警告:我们纵情享受的那种现代化未见得如它看上去的那样强大。我们需要寻找一种能让我们经受各种天气条件的方式。我们寻求的现代化应当提高我们应付这种雪灾的能力,而不是让我们更加不堪一击。

熊蕾,中国人权研究会常务理事。

首页图片由Jin Aili


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梦魇之旅

中国人对雪灾的应对恰好表明了我们能够做到多少。也许下次牢骚满腹的英国人在碰到“铁道上有落叶”而在路上多花了1个小时时应该想一想中国这次遭受的灾难。

A journey from hell

The Chinese reaction to the snowstorms shows just how much people can cope with; something moaning Brits should remember next time the commute home takes an extra hour due to "leaves on the line".

不应对事实视而不见(1)

我认为有太多太多的人对正在发生的一些变化视而不见。有越来越多的科学证据表明人类已经对地球上有限的资源、脆弱的生态系统和我们已知的生命产生了大规模的有害影响。在大量的精心设计的气候变化有关研究的支持下,杰出的科学家们如Rajendra K. Pachauri博士、James Hansen博士、Hans J. Schellnhuber博士、和Christopher Rapley博士在本月向各国政府首脑和全人类发布了气候红色警报,呼吁应在政治家和经济首脑间开展开放的磋商并采取行动。

Not seeing what is happening? (part 1)

Something is happening that many too many people appear not to be seeing, I suppose.

Scientific evidence is springing up everywhere that indicates the massive and pernicious impact of the human species on the limited resources of Earth, its frangible ecosystems and life as we know it.

Guided by mountains of carefully and skillfully developed research regarding climate change, top rank scientists like Dr. Rajendra K. Pachauri, Dr. James Hansen, Dr. Hans J. Schellnhuber and Dr. Christopher Rapley issued a Climate Code Red emergency declaration this month to leaders of governments and to the family of humanity proclaiming the necessity for open discussion and action by politicians and economic powerbrokers.

不应对事实视而不见(2)

愚以为,许多世界政治及经济的领导人都对人类的过度消费、过度生产和人口过度繁衍的行为视而不见,而这些行为正在不负责任的消耗自然资源,并造成了地球家园环境的严重退化。地球正在被掠夺,而许多领导人却有意拒绝承认正在发生的这一切。由于人类即将面临的新的全球挑战被许多一流的科学家认为是人类自身导致的,领导人们有责任采取行动,不管其做好准备与否,或喜欢与否。

Not seeing what is happening? (Part 2)

From my humble perspective, many leaders of the global political economy are turning a blind eye to human over-consumption, overproduction and overpopulation activities that can be seen recklessly dissipating the natural resources and dangerously degrading the environs of our planetary home. The Earth is being ravaged; but it appears many leaders are willfully refusing to acknowledge what is happening.

Because the emerging global challenges that could soon be presented to humanity appear to so many fine scientists as human-induced, leaders have responsibilities to assume and duties to perform, ready or not, like them or not.

不应对事实视而不见(3)

也许我们这个时代的领导层时常无视具备一定真实性的任何事物,以换取对于政治上适宜、经济上方便、社会上融洽、宗教上宽容和文化上合宜的任何事物的信任。当真实情况与领导人们愿意相信的发生直接冲突时,现实往往被否认。当对其私人利益有益时,许多领导人会紧紧抓住那些广泛认同的和一致认可的华而不实的宏大思想不放并以此为满足。难道人类生活又回到了一种被成为经济全球化的现代巴别塔所控制的时代吗?是不是人类的思想、判断和意志被我们对人为捏造的全球政治经济的偶像崇拜削弱的如此之严重,以致于我们只能谈论经济增长和利润之类的事,否则我们就会被人当作十足的白痴?Steven Earl对于人口与沙丁鱼认识的宣传活动,2001年设立。http://sustainabilitysoutheast.org/

Not seeing what is happening? (Part 3)

Perhaps leadership in our time has too often chosen to ignore whatsoever is somehow real in order to believe whatever is politically convenient, economically expedient, socially agreeable, religiously tolerated and culturally prescribed. When something real directly conflicts with what leaders wish to believe, that reality is denied. It appears that too many leaders are content to hold tightly to widely shared and consensually validated specious thinking when it serves their personal interests.

Is humanity once again finding life as we know it dominated by a modern Tower of Babel called economic globalization? That is, has human thinking, judging and willing become so egregiously impaired by our idolatry of the artificially designed, manmade, global political economy that we cannot speak intelligibly about anything else except economic growth and profits without sounding like blithering idiots?

Steven Earl Salmony
AWAREness Campaign on The Human Population, established 2001
http://sustainabilitysoutheast.org/

确实值得深思

这似乎不是第一次了,同样的灾难在世界不同地区重复地出现,这到底是必然还是偶然呢?就像经济快速增长带来的环境污染和生态破坏一样,人类到底能否避免?或是只能学习如何应对?

Truly Worth Consideration

This doesn't seem like the first time that the same type of environmental disaster re-occurs in different locations. Is this purely a coincidence or not? Just like the pollution and ecological destruction brought by rapid economic growth, can mankind evade it? Or merely study how to react to it?

对气候变化应对不力

太多的世界上政治和经济的领袖们丢弃了其应有的道义责任,对人类的过度消费、生产过剩和人口过剩视而不见,而这一切都在毫无顾忌的挥霍着自然资源,同时造成了我们地球环境的急剧退化。地球在遭受掠夺,但是政治家们、CEO们和其它组织的领袖们却不愿承认现实。负责任的、称职的、富有勇气的科学们都倾向于认为人类面临的全球性的挑战是由人类自身导致的,而政治和经济领域的领导人却仍然有意回避其责任,但是如果我们要保护已知的生命、如果我们要给我们的子孙后代留下一个完整的地球,我们就必须承担这种责任,尽管它有那么一点不受欢迎,也有一点意外。

Failing to respond ably

Are many too many leaders of the global political economy spurning their moral obligations by turning a blind eye to human over-consumption, overproduction and overpopulation activities that can be seen recklessly dissipating the natural resources and drastically degrading the environs of our planetary home? The Earth is being ravaged; but it appears too many politicians, CEOs and institutional executives are willfully refusing to acknowledge what is happening.

Because the emerging global challenges that could soon be confronted by humanity appear to so many responsible, able and courageous scientists to be human-induced, many of our political leaders and economic powerbrokers have evidently been eschewing unwelcome responsibilities and unexpected duties which must be assumed now if life as we know it and the integrity of Earth are to be preserved for our children and coming generations.

政治需要拥抱科学

在6月11号致给北卡罗来纳州报主编Chapel Hill的信中存在解决方法如果我们应用到科学。第一部分:人类一定会实现中国的一句古话:“我们生活在一个有趣的世界。”我们很多卓越的科学家都说上帝是虚幻的。而另一方面,有天生直觉的信仰者却经常告诉我们这些科学家们也被直觉虚幻性的无神论所困。我猜想没有人会知道谁才是正确的。我是相信人类社会可以利用上帝给予的科学天赋去量度全球所面临挑战然后找出与普世价值观念一致的解决方法。但是,在我们转移到适度地对抗和理性解决一个类似与全球变暖这个对人类健康和环境卫生构成威胁的挑战之前,我们需要开阔地认识并广泛地对它进行讨论。我猜想是我的人生经历用来建议我们在贯彻“治疗”选项前,要正确地“诊断”挑战所在。

Politicians need to embrace science

letter to the editor
Chapel Hill (NC) Newspaper
June 11, 2008

Solutions exist if we apply the science.

PART 1
Humankind is surely experiencing the fulfillment of a Chinese proverb: "We live in interesting times." Many of our brilliant scientists report that God is a delusion. On the other hand, intuitive and gifted believers regularly tell us that these scientists themselves suffer from a form of delusional atheism. No one knows, I suppose, which of these groups is correct.

I am one of those people who believes the family of humanity can use God's gift of science to take the measure of any global challenge and find solutions that are consonant with universal values. But, before we can move forward to reasonably address and sensibly overcome a challenge to human wellbeing and environmental health such as global warming, that challenge needs to be openly acknowledged and widely discussed. I suppose it is a function of my life experience to suggest that we accurately "diagnose" whatever the challenge is before proceeding to implement "treatment" options.


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