“在哥本哈根达成一个有效的协议,需要付出空前的努力——而很多人担心成功的机率不高。”
2009年12月1日,代表们将齐聚丹麦哥本哈根,参加第15次《京都议定书》缔约方大会。对于地球上每一个人以及千千万万尚未来到人世者的未来而言,这次会议意义重大。关键的问题是,能否达成一项协议,有效地减少温室气体的排放,足以让世界气候变化处于可容忍的限度之内。
科学上已毫无疑义,现在到了该进行政治抉择和付出空前努力的时候,从而获得所有国家——富国和穷国、发展中国家和发达国家——的合作,达成一个公正和有效的协议。通往哥本哈根的道路是去年“巴厘岛路线图”设定的,相关的努力正在有条不紊地进行。(今年6月,作为一系列的预备会议之一,2,000多名代表在德国波恩开会,以确定未来的议程和关键问题。)然而,时间安排很紧——而结果则难以预料。“中外对话”将密切关注这一进程、对问题进行阐释、介绍参与者、跟踪事件的进展,以及在通往哥本哈根的道路上探讨不同的选择。
关键的挑战是达成一个新的协议,以取代2012年到期的《京都议定书》。根据《京都议定书》,发达国家制定了减排目标以及实现这些目标的机制。下一个协议的问题是,在限制和最终减少排放的努力中,发展迅速的国家——特别是中国、印度、巴西和俄罗斯——将发挥什么样的作用。
根据《京都议定书》,减排的担子落到了发达国家身上,原因在于这些国家对当前温室气体水平负有历史责任,拥有更多的资源,以及发展中国家发展的需要。然而,现在即使发达国家付出巨大的努力,如果发展中国家不采取行动,显然不可能达到安全的排放水平。
发展中国家应该及能够采取什么样的行动呢?能找到什么样的机制,让发展中国家在发展的同时,不会让未来的气候变化摧毁它们的以及发达国家的未来?这些挑战如何能通过一个公平和平等的途径得以解决?气候变化已经发生,如何帮助那些受影响的国家适应我们变化中的世界?
这些讨论的重点在于,什么是“安全”的温室气体浓度水平,这个问题至今尚未达成一致。依据温室气体稳定目标,所有的减排努力都必须是可测量的。根据浓度水平,我们对未来温度上升的科学预测能精确到何种程度?我们如何能估计到气候变化引发的未知反馈回路影响?为了我们以及我们孩子们的未来,需要我们所有人做出改变,这种改变能获得公众的支持吗?作为个人,我们能做什么?
在哥本哈根达成一个有效的协议,需要付出空前的努力——而很多人担心成功的机率不高。悲观的原因是:谈判是在全球经济形势难以预料以及能源和食品价格陡然上升引发全球范围的抗议的背景下举行的。美国温室气体人均排放量遥居第一,正处于总统选举中期,其结果将决定如何及多大程度上参与全球努力。美国的态度将反过来影响中国、印度和其他发展中国家的态度。
如果哥本哈根进程失败,将影响到每个人的未来。然而,即使成功了,也许还是不够。除了外交谈判之外,还有哪些机制以及还可以作出哪些努力,以减少温室气体的排放?还有其他的参与者,没有直接参与谈判,他们的行为将具有重大的影响。工商业是可以采取行动的最大部门之一:某些跨国公司的碳足迹相当于几个国家的那么大,它们将在如何肩负起减排责任、采取什么措施以及在其供应链中形成什么措施方面获得评判。
据上月报道,中国温室气体排放量连续第二年居全球之首。和美国一起,在人类防止灾难性气候变化的努力中,中国是成败的关键。责任重大,问题非同小可。失败的后果将影响到每一个人。相反地,成功的奖赏将是安全的繁荣、可持续的发展模式以及全人类更清洁、更安全的未来。在未来的17个月中,“中外对话”将踏上从巴厘岛到哥本哈根的征途,请一起加入我们的旅程、探讨问题和会见将左右结果的参与者。
伊莎贝尔·希尔顿:“中外对话”总编
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参与讨论 COMMENTS
参与讨论
作者在文中提出的“在人类防止灾难性气候变化的努力中,中国是成败的关键”这句话是什么意思?关键在于每个人的努力。西方国家应尽他们自己的力量,而不是把中国的立场作为付出努力的条件。我相信中国也会采取行动。请不要把抗击气候变化看作一个游戏。尽你自己的一分力量,请先打整自己的事务,然后再来管理这个世界。
该评论由 Stacy Xu 翻译
What does it mean that "China holds the key to the success of humanity’s efforts to prevent catastrophic climate change?" The key is in the hands of everybody. The West should make any efforts they can instead of conditioning all these on China's stance. I believe China will take action as well. Stop treating tackling climate change as a game. Just do what you should do, clean up your mess first and then you can police the world.
我还读到"即便发达国家做出巨大的努力,如果发展中国家不采取行动的话, 全球也不可能达到一个安全的碳排放水平.但是,这样说的证据(发展国家努力而无效)在哪里?难道每个人尽所能而为不重要吗?
I have heard that "even with extraordinary efforts on the part of developed countries, it will not be possible to reach a safe level of emissions if developing countries do not also take action." But where is the evidence? And isn't it important for everyone to do as much as they can?
你可以在这一 文章中看到很有说服力的证据. 全球发展中心的研究者的研究结论是:有一种观念认为,南方国家可以干在灾难性的气候变化发生之前,利用碳密集的增长方式极大地增加收入,这是一种依靠化石燃料推动、最后的发展方式,我们的结果揭示了这种观念的危险谬误。按照这种观念,南方国家的确能够取得短期的发展,但沿着碳密集发展道路必然会遇到致命的气候门槛,即使北方没有进行过任何排放也一样。
"But where is the evidence?" Compelling evidence is offered in the recently published paper by David Wheeler, Kevin Ummel and Robin Kraft, researchers at the Center for Global Development. (See chinadialogue, "Another inconvenient truth") Their conclusion: "Our results reveal the dangerous fallacy in the notion that the south can utilise carbon-intensive growth to dramatically increase incomes... before the onset of catastrophic climate change. In this scenario the south achieves rapid short-run development, but on a carbon-intensive path that virtually assures the crossing of critical climate thresholds, even if there had never been any emissions from the north."
我同意上面两个评论.很遗憾,"中外对话"这个自称促进中西方了解的网站,还是没有逃脱西方媒体的"东方批判论"的思维方式. 这篇文章本身没有什么新意,很多都是老调重谈.我想,中外对话应更以公平的态度去看待气候变化问题.如果西方国家都不愿意积极采取行动来解决历史遗留的碳排放问题,你们有什么资格来教育别人如何行事? 此外,作为一个读者,我想看看总编在解决方案上的想法,而不想再读到没有新意的过时内容. 张言
I agree with the first two comments. It is very unfortunate that chinadialogue claims to advance understanding between China and the West but it cannot avoid perpetuating the Western media method of simply criticizing the East. This article does not have any new ideas, much of it is just old talk. I think chinadialogue should take a more impartial approach before prescribing climate change solutions. If western countries are not willing to take action to solve the historical carbon emissions problem proactively, what right do you have to educate others how to act? Besides this, I want to see the chief editor’s fresh commentary on solutions, not read an article that has no new ideas. Zhangyan Comment translated by Michelle Deeter
我认为,发达国家无论如何都必须立即减排是至关重要。部分的减排过程包括了发达国家必须停止向发展中国家购买排放额。我们必须在产品上注明碳指标,或许碳税制度。这最终将排放额内在化而溶入市场。(秀錂译)
I think its important that developed countries quickly reduce their emissions - no matter what. Part of this reduction process though should also be that developed countries stop outsourcing emissions to production sights in developing countries. We need a carbon indication on products and probably a carbon tax/tariff. This way emissions are finally internalized into the market.
能起到关键作用的还要说是中国。如果说过去的污染物排放是西方国家的责任的话,那么正如之前评论所讲,中国将在未来废弃物的排放中扮演主要角色。我们一致同意发达国家应当且必须做出最大的努力,但这些努力离不开发展中国家的相应行动。就像文章中提出的,现在的重中之重是基于这些现实,尽快找到公平公正的解决方案。该评论由Zheng Shen翻译
It is not negative to say that China holds the key .. if the past emission are the responsibility of the West, China will play a major part in future emissions as previous comments say. Whatever the advanced countries do -- and they must, we all agree, do the maximum, t will not be enough without the developing countries. Surely the point is to find, as the article says, a just and equitable solution that takes these facts as its starting point
我不同意评论4所述。哥本哈根是关于将来,同时也是过去。没有人责备中国的过去—京都条约已经表明了这一点。然而,中国的确地愿意成为将来的一份子吗?毕竟这也是中国的将来,政府的气候计划已经对缓和气候变化的努力作出了承诺。我再次的阅读这篇文章,而不觉得它在批评中国或者告诉中国应该怎么做。(秀錂译)
I disagree with this comment. Copenhagen is about the future, as well as the past. Nobody is blaming China for the past -- the Kyoto treaty makes this clear. But surely China is willing to be part of the future? After all it is China's future too and the government's climate plan commits to serious mitigation efforts. I have read this article again and I don't see that it is criticising China or telling China what to do.
中国政府的官方政绩是有KPI,即关键绩效指标来评定的。一般来说,这由各自省市所吸引的投资所决定。因为生产制造业可吸引更多的投资,中国的发展重视mfg。现在所需的是新的KPI指标以衡量各省绩效,为吸引正当投资和发展做出积极的推动。解决办法有什么呢?这是有待明了的问题。
translated by - Yunqin
Chinese govt. officials performance is judged by KPIs (key performance indicators). Frequently, this means investment deals attracted to their city or province. Because manufacturing attracts greater capital investment, China's development has been weighted to mfg. What is needed are new KPIs for measuring their performance, providing them an incentive to attract clean investment and development. What is the solution? That is what needs to be figured out.
我也很讨厌一些记者对中国的指责,以及把整个世界的责任都推在中国肩上的报道.我是一个美国人,不久前,一位美国记者采访了我.他是以这样的方式开场的:"研究关于中国的环境方面的政治问题一定很有趣吧!因为中国是主要的污染者,而且没有对气候变化做出一丁点贡献." 对于他这种完全不正确而且无知的态度,我认为在西方国家是很普遍的.但是,本篇文章并没有持有这种态度.正如评论7的作者强调的,本文作者只不过指出中国在改变气候的未来行动中将会贡献巨大的力量. 中国人口众多,地域广阔.没有人能够否认其在国际上节能减排的巨大力量.至少不象评论1所说的, 诸如美国这样的国家不应该为全世界做出榜样.这种国与国之间无谓的争吵不断,我们大家都感到很失望.我想起了我的堂兄:"詹妮没有做作业,那我也不做." 真是孩子气.--Alecia Waite
该评论由Stacy Xu 翻译.
I too am sick of hearing journalists blame China, or put the entire state of the world on China's shoulders. I'm American, and an American journalist recently interviewed me, using this as a prompt: "Well, it must be interesting to study the environmental politics of China, because they're our main polluter, and they're not doing anything about climate change."
I think this (completely incorrect and ignorant) attitude is very prevalent in the West. But, I don't see this attitude in this article. As the author of Comment 7 noted, this article is merely pointing out that China has a big role in the future of climate change. It's a big country, with a lot of people. Nobody can deny that it's crucial to an international effort to mitigate emissions. That doesn't mean, in the least, that nations like the US shouldn't lead by example, as the author of comment 1 pointed out.
Like all of you, I'm dissapointed that this argument between nations is still occurring. It reminds me of my cousins, "Well If Jenny doesn't do her homework, then I don't have to either." How childish.
--Alecia Waite
张言,恕我直言,你似乎有点自相矛盾。你一方面说,中外对话不应该告诉中国该做些什么(尽管目前为止我仍没见过有人这么做),另一方面你却批评这篇文章里没提出新建议。怎么回事?你的建议呢?为什么你对一个普遍问题的回应会变成抱怨人家提出这个问题?西方人对中国人印象不好的原因之一是,似乎如果没有人抱怨中国是被欺侮的国家,(尽管目前仍无证据可言,)那大家似乎不可能就某些共同问题进行讨论。中国人口占世界人口5%。难道还不是时候放下你这种幼稚的爱国主义,做个有建设性和有责任感的地球人,对威胁中国和其它地方的问题做些有建设性和认真的贡献?(此评论由Canly Tseng翻译)
Zhang
If you forgive me pointing it out there seems to be a bit of a contradiction in what you say. On the one hand you say chinadialogue shouldn't tell China what to do (though nobody had as far as I can see) and on the other you complain that there are no new suggestions in the article. Which is it? And where are your suggestions? Why is it that your only response to the statement of a common problem seems to be to complain that the problem has been raised? One of the reasons that people in the West have a negative view of China is that it seems impossible to talk about common problems without someone complaining that China is being pushed around, though evidence for this happening today is rarely offered. China is one fifth of the world's population. Isn't it time to grow out of this infantile nationalism and accept the responsibilities of being a constructive and serious global player, making a constructive and serious contribution to a problem that threatens China as much as the rest of the world?
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