中国与世界,环境危机大家谈

china and the world discuss the environment

  • sini weibo
  • facebook
  • twitter
envelope

注册订阅每周免费邮件
Sign up for email updates


文章 Articles

气候谈判有失公平

乔伊•许韦里宁

迈克•沙纳罕

Readinen

本周,各国将在德国召开会议,讨论应对气候变化的新框架协议。然而,乔伊•许韦里宁和迈克•沙纳罕撰文指出,对于最脆弱国家而言,谈判毫无公平性可言。

article image
 

距离2009年12月达成新的应对气候变化全球框架协议的最后期限,还有不到九个月的时间,因此《联合国气候变化框架公约》(UNFCCC)各缔约方本周在德国波恩举行的会议将是一场关键的谈判。

尽管所有思维正常的人都会认为新协议必须做到公平、公正,但谈判本身便毫无公平性可言。谈判过多地押注在减少温室气体排放上,脆弱国家适应不可避免的气候变化影响的迫切需求却没有引起足够的重视。如果富裕国家不解决这些不平等状况,谈判有可能以一份劣质协议终了,使得全球最贫困和最脆弱的人们雪上加霜。

目前《京都议定书》的规章要求,2012年减排目标到期之前,一些工业化国家(但是没有签署该议定书的美国除外)按量减少其温室气体排放。各国迫切需要在今年年底之前达成替代协议,否则就不会有足够的时间在2012年之前予以实施。而在一个受气候约束的世界里,最糟糕的事情莫过于在减排上出现任何国家都没有约束性承诺的空当。

波恩会议的重要议程将是设定发达国家的新目标和处于迅速发展中的各个大国(如中国和巴西)首次制定约束性目标。然而,一定程度的气候变化已然发生,意味着即使现在停止所有温室气体的排放,有些影响依然无法避免。因此,我们必须适应气候变化。

实际上,天气变得更恶劣和更加不可预测、冰盖融化珊瑚白化以及海平面上升已经体现了气候变化的影响。尽管我们所有人都将被迫适应气候变化的影响,但最脆弱的往往是那些气候变化责任最小的最不发达国家和小岛屿国家。然而,围绕着各国竞争力议程的国际谈判对那些脆弱国家很不公平。

代表团的规模很重要(大的代表团均来自富裕的强国),不过代表团的规模不是会议室里起作用的唯一因素。技术和法律专长,以及知道如何玩谈判游戏,对谈判结果具有决定性的作用。这意味着大多数发展中国家从一开始便处境窘迫,他们缺乏必要的人力和物力与强大的对手正面抗衡。

在上次波兰波兹南的气候大会上,美国代表团的人数超过80人,而现如今气候变化已然成了生存问题的太平洋小岛屿国家基里巴斯只有三名代表,刚果仅有两名代表。

这事关重大,因为谈判通常很快分成许多小组,研讨解决困难的问题。来自最不发达国家和小岛屿国家的代表必须在各个小组之间奔忙,往往通宵达旦,与大代表团相比,很少有睡眠时间。因此,他们会输掉谈判。而且,这类国家在关键的准备工作上能力低或者时间少,但理解复杂问题及其含义可能需要几个月的分析。

与此同时,来自富裕的工业化国家的代表团预先会面,在技术、科学和法律顾问的支持下,为其谈判地位和保全策略作准备。尽管一些小岛屿国家打肿脸来充胖子,派出一些特别优秀的谈判人员,但多数脆弱国家无法获得这一优势。

气候变化会议可能需要气候政策专家、资深的科学家、法律顾问以及其它多个领域(如林业和农业)的专家,但是多数国家实在不具备这些必要的技术人员或资源。这可能导致发展中国家坐失对有助于减贫的决策发挥影响力的机会,例如针对雨林国家拟订激励措施,以避免造成约占人为温室气体排放17%的森林砍伐和森林退化。

同样地,各国政府商讨的协议必须包括一个强有力的长期计划,帮助脆弱国家适应气候变化。但是,存在一个重点将转而放在减缓上的风险,因为排放和设定任何约束性减排目标的努力是大国和强国的主要关注点。

尽管与大国代表团进行谈判的代表团规模小而且能力有限,但小岛屿国家联盟(AOSIS)成功地表达了自己的意见,并且成为提升气候变化道德层面的领导者。而且,还成立了最不发达国家小组,采取共同的谈判立场协同工作,使得这些国家的先天不足得以改善。

不过,谈判力方面的差距依然存在。同时,尽管联合国条约规定出资支持发展中国家参与谈判,但这些都是出于自愿而且资金不足。最不发达国家和小岛屿国家联盟将需要来自其它国家的支持,确保协议在减缓和适应问题上做到公平的平衡。

有人会说,当前的情况是公平的,富裕的大国具有更多的发言权也是在意料之中的事。其他人会认为,为了达成对所有国家有利的全球解决方案,国际谈判需要基于一个真正的共同议程。不管什么观点,谈判都不会是公平的。
 

 

乔伊·许韦里宁:国际环境法和发展基金会主管。

迈克·沙纳罕:国际环境与发展研究所新闻官。

 首页图片由 Piotr Fajfer / Oxfam International

 

评论 comments

11

评论 comments

中文

EN

嗨 Hi Guest user

退出 Logout /


发表评论 Post a comment

评论通过管理员审核后翻译成中文或英文 最大字符 1200

Comments are translated into either Chinese or English after being moderated. Maximum characters 1200

排序 Sort By:

限制规模

既然一些国家的代表太少,不妨限制富国的代表团规模,从数量上求得适当的公平。

limit the scale

Since there are only a few representatives from some countries, may as well limit the scale of the rich countries' delegations. Fairness can be obtained through numbers. (Translated by David Vance Wagner)


唯一出路

小国和大国本来就不平等,哪有绝对的公平?小国联合起来,是为自己争取利益的唯一出路。

Only one way out.

Of course smaller countries and bigger countries aren't equal, is there anywhere that is absolutely fair? The smaller countries unite to fight for their own interests, because this is their only way out.
(Translated by Braden Latham-Jones.)


当前“减少砍伐森林和森林退化导致的排放”行动之重心已经步入歧途

肆意砍伐森林是“17%”的人为排放温室气体的一大原因,它主要发生在两个国家——印尼和巴西。其中,印尼的商业种植园(棕榈油和纸浆)和巴西的农业综合企业(大豆和牛肉)是主要的排放来源。假如我们继续购买那些温室气体排放大户的产品,我们是在故意造成气候变化。事实上,那些公司的负责人(以及其政府代理人)已经对全球环境犯下罪行。最经济、迅速和有效的方法是降低这些土地开荒的进一步排放(并提高管理),拒绝购买(或惩罚性征税)这些企业法人产品。
(田亮翻译)

The current focus of REDD initiatives is seriously misguided

The great majority of the "17%" of anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions attributed to deforestation takes place in two countries - Indonesia and Brazil.

Land clearance for commercial plantations (palm oil and pulp) in Indonesia and agribusiness (soya and beef) in Brazil accounts for the great majority of those emissions.

If we continue to buy products associated with the few enterprises which account for most of those green-house gas emissions we are wilfully compounding climate change.

The directors of those enterprises (and their associates in government) have in effect committed global environmental crimes.

The cheapest, quickest and most effective way to minimise further emissions from such land clearance (and to improve governance) is to stop buying (or punitively tax) the products made by those enterprises.


挑战:在不公平的世界寻求公平

作者来自法律界,也许是为找到介入会谈的法律咨询生意找个机会吧。世界上没有绝对的公平,对发展中国家,也就是人力物力处于绝对劣势的穷国家,确实是个巨大的挑战。爱因斯坦说过,你不可能用产生了问题的思维方式再来解决这个问题。西方世界的主要毛病就是头痛医头,脚痛医脚,找不到问题的核心所在。所谓的绿色革命也好,生态文明也好,过一百年看来,也和达尔文的生物进化论和第一次工业革命一样,解决不了我们人类面临的根本问题。对物质财富的贪婪追求是导致我们现代社会诸多毛病的根源,我们需要降低欲望,而这个只有等到气候变化的巨大灾难降临到某个倒霉的穷国以后,才能引起世人的关注,才会思考我们的未来究竟在哪儿。不被蛇咬过,谁知道痛呢?!气候变化为我们的思考提供了一个绝佳的机会,就是回归自然。另外,美国人多不代表什么,假如它不加入京都议定书或者促成哥本哈根的协议。我们中国人也不会少,关键是看你能说什么,你能说服谁。开过会的人都知道,现在有很多会虫,他们的生存的意义就在于开会,开会,开会,陶醉于开会这个美好的词汇中,至于需要达成什么协议,很大程度上不需要关心。目前看来,气候变化的缔约方大会,搞得不好,就像我们国家以前的21条似的,让某个国家的代表团回国后日子不好过,谁知道呢。毕竟,这么专业的会谈,这个由发达国家首先造成的问题,也由发达国家良心发现提议解决的问题没有现成的答案。

The Challenge: Searching for Fairness in an Unfair World

There is no such thing as absolute fairness. This presents an enormous challenge for developing countries in general, and in particular for those poorer countries whose levels of human and material resources put them at an absolute disadvantage. As Einstein once said, you can't go looking for solutions to a problem by appealing to the same ideas that brought about the problem in the first place. The main shortfall of the Western approach is a tendency to tackle problems at surface value without ever getting to grips with the core reasons behind them. The Green Revolution, Ecological Civilization, they'll be no different in a hundred years time than Darwin's theory of evolution or the first industrial revolution are today; they cannot solve the root problems that humanity faces. The greedy pursuit of material wealth is the basis of so many of the problems that plague modern society. There is an evident need to restrain our desires, and yet it will only be when climate change results in a disaster of catastrophic proportions crashing down on the head of some unfortunate, impoverished nation that we will finally pay attention and wake up to the question of where exactly it is that our future lies. You can't know what a snakebite feels like until one leaps up and bites you... Global warming has given us the most wonderful opportunity, one that involves a return to nature.
In addition, the fact that that there a lot of Americans is irrelevant if their nation fails to sign up to the Kyoto agreement or contribute to the Copenhagen agreement. There are a lot of Chinese as well! The key rather is how people view you, and whom you are able to persuade. Anyone who's been at a conference before will know that there exists today a breed of conference-lice whose sole purpose and sustenance in life is conferences, conferences and more conferences! They become so intoxicated by their own high-falluting vocabulary that when when the time comes for hammering out some kind of deal, they couldn't care less about its outcome. Still, if this current round of talks between climate change treaty signatories goes badly, then perhaps national delegates may have one or two tough questions to answer when they get home, as was the case with China's Agenda 21 a few years back. Who knows? In any event, at a specialized meeting such as this, it may be the case that, though moved by conscience into trying to fix a problem for which they themselves are responsible, developed nations realize that no such thing as a ready-made solution exists.


气候变化!?

症结在哪里?
其影响不确定,其影响不在你身边,所以你不用担心。
如果有一天全球每一个角落的人都得承担气候变化的破坏,也许只有在那时人类才能反思要超越政治地理的边界来应对全球气候变化的影响。
也许有人会讲,放到历史的长河中,这也许是大自然正常的规律,但是我们不要忘了一点:人类是在进步的,社会是在发展着的。我们是在往前走的,如果我们能够做些什么,我们为什么不做呢。如果我们能够为别人减少一些苦难,我们为什么不做呢。
每个人都要学会换位思考,特别是和处在金字塔最底层人换位,然后再想想自己能够做些什么,最后再看看自己做了什么。
(YZHK)

The climate change!?

Where is the problem? The impact of climate change is uncertain and far away from you, so you are not worried at all. Maybe human beings would only think about dealing with global climate change instead of geopolitical borders after every person in the world has to suffer the damages of climate change. Maybe someone would say the change might be a normal rule of nature from a historical perspective. However, we should not forget, human beings are making progress and society is developing. If we can do something or we can reduce the pain of others, then why not? Everyone should learn to put themselves into shoes of others, especially those in the bottom of the pyramid, reconsider what they could do, and then see what they have done. (YZHK)
(Translated by Xiaoyu Guan)


气候的变化

你可能会这么想,无论发生什么,社会都将会继续发展。我不认为你已经理解了气候变化将会产生的影响。社会可能会在发张的同时破碎倒退。看看在20世纪的前半叶中国都发生了什么。从目前的投影图中我们可以看见地球可能会上升6度,这就意味着大部分世界都将无法生存。你现在还认为社会将会前进吗?

本篇评论由陈丽英(anna)翻译

the climate change

You seem to think that society will go on developing whatever happens. I don't think you have understood what the impacts of climate change will be... Societies can fall apart and go backwards as well as advancing -- look at what happened to China in the first half of 20th century. At current projections we are looking a possible temperature rise of 6 degrees, at which point large parts of the world become uninhabitable. Do you still think society will advance?


气候变化和战争:一个类比

我很赞同上面的评论。社会并不是总随着时间的流逝而发展,当然了,发展对不同的人有不同的标准。生活在现代的人我看也不一定就比古时的人幸福,或在城市里的人现在也不一定比农村人生活质量高到哪里去。

气候变化目前是个风险问题,谁也不能100%肯定说一定就是由什么具体的原因造成的,温室气体可能是罪魁祸首的概率超过95%吧。这个概率很有意思。我们看看战争,谁也不知道什么时候会爆发战争,这个概率多大是个谜,多少学者都在偷偷研究。我们不能说好像没有战争的迹象,我们就不要军队了,我们不要国防了,我们不要开发新技术,新武器了。目前大规模的地区战争的概率肯定远远低于气候变化是确实的以及温室气体是罪魁祸首的概率。美国每年花几千亿美元用于国防,世界加在一起恐怕不下七八千亿美元,投资在应对气候变化上是多少?相比没办法和这个数字相提并论。更何况,温室气体的减排是个经济活动,是个可以营利的活动,确实没有理由不去做。气候变化是没有硝烟的战争啊,等到你看得见敌人的时候,恐怕一切都结束了。
samuelzhoujc@hotmail.com

Climate change and war: an analogy

I approve of the above comment very much. Society is not always developing as time goes on. Of course, different people have different standards for development. Living standards for today’s people are not necessarily more fortunate than living standards for people in the olden days; or else, the people whose lives in the cities are not necessarily better than those in the country side. Currently climate change is a question of risk. Who can say with 100% certainty what exactly caused climate change? Greenhouse gases are probably the main offender, causing over 95% of the damage. This probability is meaningful. And when we look at war, no one can know at what time war will break out. This probability is a riddle that many scholars secretly study. We aren’t able to say when there is no sign of war, we don’t want an army, and we don’t want a national defense, and we don’t want new technology and new weapons. Currently, the probability of local wars occurring in many areas is significantly lower than the probability that climate change exists and greenhouse gases are the primary cause of climate change. America spends billions of dollars on defense every year, when the total world spending on defense I’m afraid is less than 7 or 8 billion dollars. How much is spent on responding to climate change? It is impossible to talk about these numbers and talk about having no solution to climate change in the same breath. Besides, reducing greenhouse gas emissions is an economic activity, even a profitable activity, so there are no reasons not to do it. Climate change is a war without any smoke. When you have seen the enemy, it is already over. --samuelzhoujc@hotmail.com (Translated by Michelle Deeter)


急待升级人类思维意识

气候环境问题已步入误区!降污减排不能阻止全球变暖!治理环境污染不能延缓冰雪融化!从一开始,温室效应对根治根治气温升高造成误导!人为因素并非其根本原因!标本兼治才可从根本解决全球气候变暖!······

人类新意服务共同体

How long must we wait before realising we must change the way we think about ourselves?

It seems like a fundamental misunderstanding about climate and the environment has perpetuated itself in recent years. Reducing pollution and cutting emissions won't be able to halt the process of global warming. Cutting back on environmental pollution isn't going to stop glaciers from melting! It is misleading to think that the Greenhouse Effect by itself is somehow the key to reducing the rise in global temperatures. People are certainly a factor in this situation, but they are not the fundamental cause! We can only tackle the issue of global warming by dealing with the symptoms and the root causes in tandem with each other... A new conception of humanity would be of great benefit to the entire global community. The Service Community of New Ideas for Mankind


问题在于谈判之前

曾经作为一个发展中小国的“谈判代表”,我懂得积极有成效的参与联合国气候变化谈判过程有多难。“谈判代表”一词我用了单数,是因为大部分时间里我是唯一参与谈判的该国代表,而联合国气候变化谈判秘书处只解决一名代表的与会经费。但谈判过程中的问题还不算多,谈判之前的问题才是根本的。这些发展中小国无力为谈判做前期准备,或是事先起草与本国利益攸关问题的文件。由于在本国国内就事务繁冗,即便他们能够参加若干议题的谈判,他们也通常无法做好准备工作。(本评论由杨宾翻译)

Problems start before the negotiations

Having been "the negotiator" for a small developing state, I know how difficult it is to actively and effectively participating in the UNFCCD process. And I said "the negotiator" because must of the time it was only me who participated in the negotiations, since the Secretariat of the UNFCCC only finances the participation of one person. But the problem is not so much during the negotiations, it starts long before; these countries have little capacity to prepare for the negotiations or to make submissions on issues of interest to them beforehand; overworked at home, were they attend several topics and negotiations, they usually go to them not adequately prepared.


温室效应导致冰雪加速融化

写给联合国秘书长·各相关机构·哥本哈根会议联合体:事实早已证明气候环境问题步入误区!绝不能继续沉默在‘京都议定书’框架下的‘温室效应’!······只有【地球新工程】有百分之百的理由证明与世人---从根本遏制全球气候继续变暖!······

民间气候研究者

Greenhouse Effect Leads to the Acceleration of Ice Melting

To the UN Secretary-General, related organisations and the Copenhagen Climate Congress:

It seems as if we have had a misunderstanding about climate and the environment for a long time. We can no longer keep silence and continue to pursue greenhouse gases reduction under the framework of Kyoto Protocol.
Only the "new geoengineering" has sufficient reason to prove itself.
And, we have to, fundamentally, curb global warming!

--by a civil climate researcher.


1

合作伙伴 Partners