这还不单是外交战略的问题
对于中国在气候变化谈判中的决定因素,还不光是外交战略的问题,也包括中国的经济,能源战略。单纯走外交路线团结发展中国家集团并不能从根本上解决中国在谈判中处在的尴尬的位置。
另外,文章有两点需要更正。美国是UNFCCC的签署国,另外斯特恩是美国气候特使,并不是助理。
中国和西方国家就气候问题数月以来的友好磋商在哥本哈根片刻化为乌有。秦轩认为国家的外交战略亟待调整,避免类似事情再度发生。
英国经济学家尼古拉斯•斯特恩在演讲中谈到中国的进步及其做出的碳承诺。
British economist Nicholas Stern discusses China's progress and its carbon commitments.
联合国将在2009年12月举行一次重要会议, 决定是否可达成有效抗击全球变暖的协议。聚焦这一会议的从巴厘到哥本哈根将在它召开之前阐释有关问题和探索解决之道。
In December 2009, a critical UN climate conference will determine whether an agreement to effectively address global warming can be reached. Bali to Copenhagen follows the process, explaining the issues and exploring the alternatives on the road to Copenhagen.
2010年2月5日15:4
对于中国在气候变化谈判中的决定因素,还不光是外交战略的问题,也包括中国的经济,能源战略。单纯走外交路线团结发展中国家集团并不能从根本上解决中国在谈判中处在的尴尬的位置。
另外,文章有两点需要更正。美国是UNFCCC的签署国,另外斯特恩是美国气候特使,并不是助理。
Posted in reply to 中国外交战略调整将影响全球气候治理
February 05, 2010 15:04
The reasons for China's decision in the climate change negotiations are not only questions of diplomacy, but also include China's economic and energy strategy. Purely to go down the diplomatic route to unify the group of developing countries cannot fundamentally solve China's embarrassing position at the negotiations.
In addition, the article makes two points that require correction.
1.) The US is a signatory to UNFCCC
2.) Stern is an American climate special envoy, not an assistant.
(Translated by Matthew Bailey)
Posted in reply to Time for a plan
January 28, 2010 15:45
The so called low-carbon city is in essence just the city's energy saving and emissions cutting; by creating this new concept some scholars are able to seize the opportunity to make money.
(Comment translated by Matthew Bailey)
Posted in reply to A chance for Sino-US partnership
2010年1月17日9:48
文章中说,哥本哈根一个关键成果就是发达国家承诺从2020年开始每年拿出1000亿美元,帮助最脆弱的国家适应气候的变化;又说,这需要建立一个碳交易的市场,通过市场运作来筹集资金;同时还说,美国的种种立法,会削弱扶植的力度等等。
气候变化由来久矣,说来话长。想搞清楚大气中的二氧化碳哪个国家“贡献”了多少,是不可能的事情。但是,不是因为不可能,所以我们就不区别对待。我们首先不能依靠发达国家的金钱援助,一来要等到2020年,这中间的10年时间到底会发生什么事不好说;二来,咱们中国现在看来已被排除在外,可能享受不到这样的待遇;三来,就像我们的留学人员,自己挣了钱,给耶鲁大学捐了巨款,没给人大——他的母校捐款一样,引起了轩然大波一样,恐怕我们还是要靠政府来解决种种纠葛,既要有大国风度,又要拿得起,放得下,世界上没有一个政府能够完成这艰巨的任务,所以这件事情不好办。
那么怎么办?我觉得有个简单的办法,就是发达国家输送知识给穷国家。咱们老祖宗早就说过,“授人以鱼,不如授人以渔”,意思就是要把活命的手艺交给别人,而不是单单靠赏赐,后者不能长久,还培养了人的偷懒的作风。别说1000亿美元,就是1万亿美元,到了穷国手里也不够用,这早就被历史证明了的。但是,拿出1000亿美元的一小部分,比如说1%吧,就是10亿美元,作为发达国家为发展中国家的应对气候变化的能力建设的费用,估计一年可以培养2-3万人,这些人可以结合本国的实际,谋划本国的节能减排之路,定能够产生非常积极的全球影响。谁不知道,思路决定出路”这个道理呢?!现在的情况是,不管发达国家,还是发展中国家,没有“思路”,也许是装傻,也许是真没有,总之,在培养应对气候变化的生力军上,全球都不积极。“皇帝不急,太监急”,现在看来,没有太监,这个事情还真不好办。
发展中国家在气候变化这件事情上,按照联合国的标准不适用,什么收入多少,什么经济规模等等,不能作为衡量一个国家是否在应对气候变化上够不够援助的尺寸。发达国家没把这个事情说清楚,所以,才会发生“中国不高兴”这件事。我们认识到,面对气候变化,有的国家确实无能为力,比如马尔答复,比如太平洋上的国家马达加斯加,为什么呢?因为,首先历史上他们的排放确实很小,完全就是受害者;二来,节能减排对他们来说几乎没有用,因为能耗太小,即便全国都回到石器时代,也不能改变他们的命运。但是,有的国家,包括美国,包括日本,包括中国,印度,巴西和俄罗斯,特别是美国以及所谓的金砖四国,需要承当比较大的义务,为什么呢?除了俄罗斯外,这些国家的发展需要依靠能源,大量的能源,所以,可能得到的“潜在”的好处特别多,另一方面,通过节能减排,“可能”获取的利益也最大,就是说,不管从哪个方面看,这些国家是最大的受益者,理应承担更多的责任。我认为这才是“共同,但是有区别的责任”在新形势下的含义,为了落实这个道理,难道,人才培养不是最经济可行的办法嘛?
Posted in reply to 气候立法,华盛顿路在何方?
January 17, 2010 09:48
The article says that a key result of Copenhagen is that, starting from 2020, developed countries have promised 100 billion dollars to help the most vulnerable countries adapt to to climate change; it also said that this requires the establishment of a carbon trading market, raising funds through the market's operation, while saying that various laws proposed in America will weaken the level of support.
The causes of climate change have been around for a long time, and take a long time to explain. It is not possible to work out how much CO2 each country "gifted" to the atmosphere. However, we are not treating everyone the same because of this impossibility. Firstly, we cannot rely on monetary assistance from developed countries: for one, it is hard to say what will happen in the 10 years between now and 2020; secondly, it appears that China has already been excluded and will not enjoy these benefits; thirdly, as demonstrated in the stir created when a former student who had studied abroad, after earning money, donated a huge amount to Yale, but not to his alma mater Renmin University, we still need to rely on the government to solve all sorts of disputes. If we want to behave like an important country, we need to be able to act decisively. There is no one government in the world that can accomplish this mammoth task, and so this is not easy to do.
So what should we do? I think there is a simple solution- transfer of knowledge from industrialised countries to poor countries. One of our ancestors once said, "It's better to teach a man how to fish than to give him a fish", which means that you need to teach people the means to live, and not solely rely on handing out gifts . The latter cannot last forever, and also breeds a culture of laziness. Never mind 100 billion, 1000 billion dollars would be a drop in the ocean for the poor countries. History has proved this long ago. However, if the developed countries took a small portion of this 100 billion, say one percent (a billion dollars) and used it to help developing nations establish the capability to respond to climate change, I estimate that 20-30,000 people a year could be trained. These people could link up with the real situation in their country, and map out their country's road towards saving energy and cutting emissions. This would definitely have highly positive repercussions for the whole world. Who doesn't see the sense in the saying "one's thought determines one's end"? The situation now is that both developed and developing countries are not thinking- perhaps they really aren't, or perhaps they're just acting stupid- but in any case the nobody is being very positive in training fresh troops for the battle against climate change. "The emperor is calm, while the eunuchs are anxious". Today, there are no eunuchs, making it really hard to take action.
As for developing countries and climate change, UN standards, such as income levels, economic models etc, cannot be used as a yardstick by which to measure whether or not a country requires help in responding to climate change. The developed countries did not make this clear, which was the reason behind "China being unhappy". We realise that some countries are truly helpless when faced with global warming, such as the Maldives and the Pacific (sic) nation Madagascar. Why? Because firstly, their historical emissions are very small- they are victims pure and simple. Secondly, saving energy and cutting emissions is of no use to them, because their energy consumption is so low. Even if the entire country reverted to the Stone Age, they could not alter their fate. However, there are countries, including America, Japan, China, India, Brazil and Russia, especially America and the so-called BRIC countries, that need to shoulder a comparatively large obligation. Why? Apart from Russia, the development of these countries relies on large volumes of resources, so the potential advantages to be gained are especially numerous. Another aspect of this is that the benefits gained through saving energy and cutting CO2 is greatest in these countries. No matter what way you look at it, these countries are the greatest beneficiaries of the CO2 emissions to date, and it is only natural that they should take on more responsibility. I believe that this is the implication of "collective, but differentiated responsibility" in this new situation. In order to realise this principle, isn't training the most economically viable method?
Posted in reply to What to watch for in Washington
2010年1月15日7:43
3号说的很有道理,但是却回避了中国最现实的问题。发展对中国意味着什么?至少有一点,就是让那些生活艰难和拮据的人,至少可以过上有基本生活保障的生活。物欲的过分膨胀是不明智的,但那并不是发展的全部。
Posted in reply to 中国说“不”导致哥本哈根大会失败?
January 15, 2010 07:43
The third comment really makes sense, but avoids dealing with China's most real problem. What is the meaning of development to China? It is at least letting those who have a hard life without much money, living a life that is in keeping with the most basic life securities. An unreasonable increase in the desire for things is not sensible, but that is not all that development is comprised of.
Posted in reply to When China said “no”
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联合国气候变化框架公约会议 United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change
中国气候变化信息网 China Climate Change Info-Net
哥本哈根气候理事会 Copenhagen Climate Council
联合国气候会议 - 2008年 波兰波兹南 UN Climate Conference -- Poznan 2008
联合国气候会议 - 2009年 哥本哈根 UN Climate Conference -- Copenhagen 2009
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2010年2月5日19:43
中国必须改进作风
假設促成中国大部分成长(和污染)的东西方国家看重气候变化问题的话,它们会减少对高碳商品的消费。由於世界工厂的中国提供大部分此类商品,未来中国必须要证明出口货物与别国的同类商品比起来,对环境没有很大危害并符合法律标准。此该是中国国际战略的核心,值得称赞的是,中国出口市场愈来愈如此。事关重大。由James.ls翻譯
Posted in reply to 中国外交战略调整将影响全球气候治理
February 05, 2010 19:43
China needs to clean up its act
If the Eastern and Western nations which have contributed to much of China's growth (and pollution) took Climate Change seriously, they would reduce their consumption of products having a carbon intensive life-cycle.
Necessarily, given that China - as workshop of the world - supplies most of those products, China will have to demonstrate that its exports are less damaging to the environment (and more legally compliant) than the same products made elsewhere. This should be at the core of China's international strategy - as it is increasingly and commendably in China's export markets. Much is at stake.
Posted in reply to Time for a plan