科学不是吓唬人的工具
"所谓亚洲大河源头的冰川是15亿人生命线的说法,在最近的各种报告中已经成了陈词滥调。但是,这是一个误导性的概括……"
现在很多气候变化的理论都给人感觉有些言过其实,危言耸听。作者能指出这一点,坚持严谨客观的对待科学,值得称赞!
喜马拉雅山冰川消融具有诸多不确定性,但是当地水资源供应形势依然严峻。纳文•辛格•卡德加报道。
在亚洲协会视频的最后一部分,我们了解到气候变化不仅对青藏高原影响重大,也同时对全球具有深远意义。
In the final section of a three-part video from the Asia Society, we hear about the global significance of climate-change impacts on the Tibetan Plateau.
被喻为地球"第三极" 的喜马拉雅山和青藏高原,受气候变化影响显著。该地区广袤的冰雪圈、冰川以及对其赖以生存的国家受到了威胁,因而气候变化条件下的“第三极”是具全球性影响的问题。针对这一地区日益加深的危机,"第三极"提供了信息交流、讨论及寻求解决方法的平台。
The planet's "third pole" -- the Himalaya and the Tibetan Plateau -- is a climate change hotspot. The threat to the region's cryosphere -- its vast, frozen stores of fresh water -- and to the countries in its watersheds is of global importance. "the third pole" is a forum to inform, discuss and search for solutions to this gathering regional crisis.
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2010年2月3日15:1
"所谓亚洲大河源头的冰川是15亿人生命线的说法,在最近的各种报告中已经成了陈词滥调。但是,这是一个误导性的概括……"
现在很多气候变化的理论都给人感觉有些言过其实,危言耸听。作者能指出这一点,坚持严谨客观的对待科学,值得称赞!
Posted in reply to 正确认识冰川的变化(3)
February 03, 2010 15:01
"A commonplace of recent reports is to say that the lives and livelihoods of in excess of 1.5 billion people are critically dependent upon the glaciers in the headwaters of the largest Asian rivers. This is a misleading generalisation."
Now lots of climate change theory causes many people to think that it is exaggerated or alarmist. That the author is able to point this out and persist in his careful and objective treatment of science is worthy of praise.
(Comment translated by Matthew Bailey)
Posted in reply to Understanding glacier changes (3)
2010年2月3日13:20
Posted in reply to 正确认识冰川的变化(2)
February 03, 2010 13:20
Is the level of technology required to build permanent measuring and monitoring stations in these areas very high? Apart from technological problems, what other reasons are there for causing a lack of measuring and monitoring stations in these regions? Would someone be able to give a straightforward explanation?
(Comment translated by Matthew Bailey)
Posted in reply to Understanding glacier changes (2)
2010年2月1日15:17
Posted in reply to 正确认识冰川的变化(1)
February 01, 2010 15:17
Without doubt the IPCC is now sitting on pins and needles, and its public confidence faces an unprecendented challenge. Scientists need to use scientific methods to analyse climate change, for example the currently increasing glaciers; this was previously only pointed out by scientists of the ICIMOD.
(Comment translated by Matthew Bailey)
Posted in reply to Understanding glacier changes (1)
2010年1月28日1:41
给草原植树行不通!我刚刚从文中提到的区域附近的省回来。中国需要的是历时百年的重建计划。树木作为C3从土壤中吸收碳。我们需要沿海C4植物,建立土壤碳/元素,以及蒸腾关系,才能有效的输送降雨。少数民族在青海有上千年经营草原牧业的历史,把他们驱赶出去无疑是个错误。
我已经在这些地区装置了C4槽和土壤碳。Robert Vincin (见谷歌)
Posted in reply to 中国的生态高原政策
January 28, 2010 01:41
Setting out a trees for grass land will fail! I have just returned for Provinces close to the region. What is needed is 100yr plan. Trees are C3 taking carbon from soil.We need to deliver rain by planting from coast C4 vegetation to build soil carbon/elements and the transpiration links. Removing the nomadic people who managed the grass/dung for 1,000yrs like those in Qinghai a mistake.
I have planted out C4 sinks in these areas and soil carbon follows. (no computer translation please) Robert Vincin (see Google)
Posted in reply to Policies for an eco-plateau
2010年1月26日13:38
近年来,青海省游牧社区的安置项目甚为普遍(负面意义的),搬迁过程遇到了许多问题。游牧民族被赶出他们的土地,被安置进城镇或城郊的小房间里。他们失去了过往生活的方式,面临全新的挑战。大部分的牧民都不会说汉语,因此被迫迁离土地之后,他们基本上无事可做,完全没有就业的机会。并且没有足够的土地来蓄养牲畜,以至于不得不全部销售出去。关于出售牲畜的后果,请看看这则视频,它谈到了政府安置游牧民族的政策 http://sites.asiasociety.org/chinagreen/origins-of-rivers-omens-of-a-crisis/
Posted in reply to 中国的生态高原政策
January 26, 2010 13:38
Resettlement projects in nomadic communities in Qinghai province is very popular(in a negitive way) these years and there are many problems in the relocated nomadic communities. Nomads were kicked out from their land and arranged in small rooms/spaces in towns and urban areas, and they lost their way of live and encountering a new chanllenge. Most of the nomads are iliterate in Chinese language and thus when they kicked out from their land, they have almost nothing to do. No job opportunities at all. And they dont have enough land to keep their livestock and they have to sell them. What will if they sell their livestock? please watch this video, it talks about government policies over nomads relocation. http://sites.asiasociety.org/chinagreen/origins-of-rivers-omens-of-a-crisis/#comments
Posted in reply to Policies for an eco-plateau
2010年1月26日9:51
藏族有上百年可持续地管理自然环境的历史。如果不是外界影响,那么究竟发生了什么,让环境退化的如此明显? (相比文中提到的变化,气候变化的影响的历史更短。)
对许多已经城市化的半游牧民族来说,“恩人们”不会给他们选择,围栏和造林项目甚至让他们的可持续性的生活方式显得可笑。大家都知道这些外来干涉不会就此打住。这同时反映了外来者的傲慢,无论初衷善否。
Posted in reply to 中国的生态高原政策
January 26, 2010 09:51
Tibetans have for centuries managed their natural environment sustainably. What has changed to cause their environment to so clearly degrade if not external influence? (The impact of climate change is more recent than the changes mentioned in the article.)
Many of the semi-nomadic people who have now been urbanised will have been given little choice by their "benefactors", not to forget that fencing and aforestation projects make their otherwise sustainable lifestyles untenable. That this external interference would be unsatisfactory is just common sense. It also reflects the arrogance of outsiders - whether well-intentioned or not.
Posted in reply to Policies for an eco-plateau
2010年1月23日14:19
Posted in reply to 面临威胁的湄公河
January 23, 2010 14:19
After working in Cambodia for more than a year, I have deeply fallen in love with this country!
However, today, I unexpectedly discovered that the dam, that our country is constructing in Yunan, has negative affects on Cambodia's Tonlé Sap. I really feel gloomy!!
Posted in reply to The Mekong under threat
January 18, 2010 13:44
'South China Sea' is the widespread international translation, The domestically commonly used 'China South Sea' is actually the same thing.
Posted in reply to The Mekong under threat
2010年1月18日9:24
外国私有资本可能来自投资渠道,建立起来帮助中国宣传这些工程和出口信贷机构,因此,这些私有部分很有可能包含了一些既定的利益团体。大型的水电工程,热力发电站,不应该成为出口信贷机构,或者任何官方的援助机构(除非关及社会和环境影响评估,对公众检查来说,也应该是可靠可随时进行的。)这些工程表明,中国长期想不尊重其他人民,他们的邻友,而去追逐他们地缘战略。
Posted in reply to 面临威胁的湄公河
January 18, 2010 09:24
The "foreign private capital" is probably from investment vehicles set up specifically to assist China in promoting these projects and Export Credit Agencies - so the "private" component is likely include vested interests.
Large hydro-electric projects - thermal power stations - should not be eligible for Export Credits - or any other official aid (except in relation to social and environmental impact assessments - which must be credible and freely available for public scrutiny).
These projects demonstrate China's continued willingness to disrespect other people, their livelihoods and the environment in pursuit of its geo-strategic agenda.
Posted in reply to The Mekong under threat
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2010年2月5日17:26
“未知”或许是好事
科学研究最忌讳以偏概全,无法实事求是。这就是为什么最近一系列被媒体捅出来的关于气候变化的质疑受到广泛的讨论。基于自身条件所限,民众没有别的方法,只能选择相信科学家。如果科学家因为种种原因,信口雌黄,或者只为了某种利益有意忽视真相的另一面,被揭穿后,这种无条件的信任就崩溃了。
因此我宁愿听到科学家说“事情很复杂,我们还在研究”,也不希望他们斩钉截铁的下定论:“是的,2035年,冰川就消失了。”
Posted in reply to 未知的水资源
February 05, 2010 17:26
Perhaps the "Unknown" Is a Good Thing
More than anything, scientific research tries to avoid taking a part for the whole. This is why recently the questioning of climate change has received so much media attention. Because of our own limitations, people can do nothing but choose which scientists to believe. And if scientists, for whatever reason, make unfounded claims or intentionally ignore facts for some other gain, when they are exposed, this unconditional confidence in them will collapse.
This is why I would rather hear them say, "It's a very complicated issue, we still have more research to do." And by the same token, I wouldn't want them to reach an unequivocal conclusion: "Yes, in 2035, the glaciers will have disappeared."
Comment translated by Clay Baylor
Posted in reply to Charting unknown waters