谢谢您对我们的石油峰值理论做出的回应。我们发现您已经对“石油峰值”很是信赖。您对石油峰值的理解基本上是对的。正如文章的第一段所说：“该理论最初由美国地球物理学家M·K·哈伯特于1949提出，是指某一油田、油区、乃至全世界的石油产量将呈现一种“钟形曲线”的变化趋势，即现存供给快速上升，在达到一个短暂的顶峰之后，迅速下滑。”但是，您没看到我们的专栏文章，所以您可能不知道，在过去的至少100年里人们一直在重复警告着，世界石油产量很快就要达到峰值，地球上的石油就要耗尽了。1920年，美国地质调查局估测世界上只存在600亿桶可收回的成品油，但是迄今为止我们已经生产了1万亿多桶，另外还有1.5万亿桶的储备。

请允许我引用周大地的说法，他是中国最具影响力的能源专家之一，同时也是《中国能源发展中长期战略研究（2030、2050）》的撰稿人，“石油峰值现在争议很大, 产生石油峰值的原因主要是两大类: 一类是针对资源性的, 就是储量和库存的问题; 一类是由于经济因素如投资不足或其他问题造成的增加比较困难的问题. 如果真把"峰值" 当回事, 来所谓这种预测, 是没有道理的, 也不是主流意见。”

我们承认任何资源都是有限的，包括常规石油。但是我们认为，以中国为例，在短期内不会出现石油产量峰值（请看第二段）。依您看来，丹尼尔·耶金的观点不会得到重视。然而，剑桥能源研究协会（在美国）是一个在分析和预测全球石油市场走向领域很权威的公司。您有跟专家谈论过石油峰值的问题吗？

诚然，有关石油峰值的讨论会继续盛行，不过也不会有明显的进展。但是仔细审视一下，石油峰值理论就会显得不那么合理，因为它存在严重的逻辑和应用缺陷。

如果你认真阅读这篇文章，并了解中国的现状，你应该会发现这篇文章其实是在呼吁中国战略性地考虑石油问题。关于石油峰值的争论并不是决策者应关注的焦点。

同样，您对中国采取行动加强石油战略储备的信心也显得很天真。我们对中国进行了很长期的观察，而且我们就来自中国。石油战略储备不能彻底解决石油问题。我建议您读更多关于中国的文章并与一些政府高层人员进行交流。

您可以和很多经济学家和相关专家讨论石油峰值的问题。时间将给出正确的答案。

谨致问候。

Thank you for responding to our points on peak oil theory. We can see you already have faith in “peak oil”. Your understanding of peak oil is basically correct. As you may see and cite from our first paragraph, “The idea – first put forward by American geophysicist MK Hubbert in 1949 – is that individual oil fields, oil-producing regions and world oil production will display a ‘bell curve’: a steep rise in available supplies, narrow peak and subsequent rapid fall.” Alas, you did not see in our op-ed piece and you may not know that for at least 100 years people have repeatedly warned that the world oil production will peak soon, and our planet is running out of oil. In 1920, the US Geological Survey estimated that the world contained only 60 billion barrels of recoverable oil. But to date we have produced more than 1000 billion barrels and currently have more than 1500 billion barrels in reserve.

Please allow me to cite a statement by Zhou Dadi, one of China's most prominent energy experts and the author of China's Energy Medium- and Long-term Development Strategy Research (2030, 2050), "石油峰值现在争议很大, 产生石油峰值的原因主要是两大类: 一类是针对资源性的, 就是储量和库存的问题; 一类是由于经济因素如投资不足或其他问题造成的增加比较困难的问题. 如果真把"峰值" 当回事, 来所谓这种预测, 是没有道理的, 也不是主流意见".

We admit that any resources will be finite, including conventional oil. But we do argue that in the near term, for example, China will not witness an oil production peak (see paragraph two). Daniel Yergin, in your view, might not be highly regarded. However, IHS CERA is an authoritative company (in the US) analyzing and forecasting global oil market trends. Have you talked with experts about the peak oil issue?
True: the Peak Oil debate continues to rage without any obvious progress. But upon careful examination, the Peak Oil theory falls down because of serious flaws in logic and application.

If you read it carefully and if you understand the current situation in China, you should perceive that this article is a call to China to think about the oil issue strategically. The peak oil debate is really not the thing that the policymakers should focus on.

Similarly naive is your faith in China’s action to increase its SPR. We have been a long-time observers on China and we are from the country. SPR cannot fully resolve the oil problems. I recommend you read more Chinese articles and talk with some senior people in the Chinese government.

There are many economists and experts you can talk to and argue with about peak oil. Time will give us the right answer.

Kind regards.