中国与世界,环境危机大家谈

china and the world discuss the environment

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savvas

加入本网站时间 Member Since 29 April 2012

Savvas's 评论 comments

savvas

无论是中国还是全世界,我认为都有必要就未来液态燃料供应采取战略措施,这也是作者的主要观点。然而,作为一名未来能源非技术领域的长期学习者,我认为他们的观点有失公允,因为他们忽视了一些未来能源供应战略的关键因素,例如:
——生产成本(或能源利用率)
——全球范围内的“新发现”,非传统石油资源以及新生产技术具有重要意义(或在其他方面)
——取代非传统石油产出的萎缩的任务规模十分巨大
这些因素必将驱动未来政策,而且并不仅限于中国!

Mushalik的网站对此很有参考价值http://www.crudeoilpeak.com
同时还可以参看http://www.graphoilogy.com网站。

savvas

I fully agree on the need to strategic action with regard to future liquid fuel supplies, for both China and for the world as a whole. This I think was the key point the authors sought to make in their initial defense of their article. However, as a longtime non-technical student of energy futures, I cannot help thinking they do a great injustice to their argument by not discussing the key issues which will govern future oil supply strategy - notably:
- issues associated with costs of production (or EROI)
- the numerical significance (or otherwise) on a global scale of 'new discoveries', unconventional oil sources and new production technologies
- the sheer scale of the task of replacing declines in unconventional oil production. These are the issues which must and will drive future policy and not simply in China! See Mushalik's site for some excellent references at http://www.crudeoilpeak.com. Also http://www.graphoilogy.com. Savvas

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