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国家资本主义和粮食危机

对于国际贸易,不同的国家有着不同的做法,而且正在改变粮食的买卖途径。在各国领导人本周齐聚罗马,讨论粮价飙升之际,克里奥•帕斯卡尔探讨了中国的做法。
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粮价高企并节节攀升,全球都在关注由此带来的安全隐忧。人们大多关注社会动荡问题,但还有一个考虑的因素就是,不同国家对于获得粮食和其他稀缺资源的应对之策。一些国家可能让市场决定价格,而其他的国家则更积极主动地确保价格的长期稳定。例如中国,为了保持国内的稳定,居民要买得起粮食。那就意味着政府不能简单地让市场来主宰粮食买卖。结果,像中国这样的国家,其未来获得粮食供应的途径,可能改变全球经济运行的方式。

如果粮价高企是暂时现象,中国也许可以安然渡过,不过,稍稍考察一下导致涨价的因素,就会发现这可能是一场持久的危机。(这些因素包括:市场投机;大规模转向燃料作物;当前多产土壤的退化,洪灾或旱灾;作物病虫害扩散到新的地区,或者在原来的地区变得更具破坏性;全球人口增长;城市和工业发展导致侵占农田;燃料、运输和肥料成本上升;以及越来越频繁的极端天气事件,例如英国去年夏季发生的洪灾和2008年冬季中国所遭受的雪灾。)

最终结果是,2007年3月至2008年3月,大米价格上涨了74%,大豆(很多人主要的蛋白质来源)加价87%,小麦攀升了130%。海地发生了致命骚乱,墨西哥抗议,意大利示威游行,印尼因生物燃料作物取代其他的土地用途而产生动荡,中国消费者面临困难时期。中国政府担心,粮食成本上升可能增加社会动荡,已经为一贯最为“积极”的学生群体增加了粮食补助。其他国家已实施粮食出口限制和价格管制。

传统观点认为,当作物产量停滞不前或下降以及人口增长时,发展中国家的人遭受的打击最大。然而,某种程度上这可能是对的,举例来说,中国正在进行重大的地缘经济转型,将有助于获得各种战略基本物资的供应,其中包括粮食。

通常,国家都有两套平行的经济政策,国内一套,国际一套。例如,谈到国内市场,美国可能倾向于补贴,尤其是在农业等领域,但是在国际上,却推行自由市场和放开管制。

相反地,中国国内有点儿像经济的“西部荒原”,但是在国际上,大多数大型的中国公司与政府合作(有时还亏损经营),以提升国家的战略利益。谈到国际交易,中国实行资本主义,不过,是国家资本主义。

从全球来看,在能源领域,这种走向国家资本主义的举动在不断上演。在西方国家以外,在俄国、委内瑞拉、玻利维亚和其他地方,正在掀起一场化石燃料资源的有效国有化运动。油气供应是巨大而有效的政治工具,在世界舞台上,在这方面实施国家资本主义的国家,比实施其他任何举措都更具影响力。

实施国家资本主义的国家,可以签署国与国之间的一揽子交易,将公开市场完全排除在外,并公开地将亟需的资源和广泛的交易联系起来,包括军事设备。这就是中国在苏丹所做的事,用武器、培训和基础设施援助来换取化石燃料。结果,中国在进入市场之前就获得了石油。

在粮食供应短缺的时代,将作物纳入到国与国之间的交易乃理所当然。例如,人们会预计到,中国在与非洲国家之间数量不断增加的协议中,将增加有关粮食作物或者耕地的安排,这可以部分解释中国为何在潜在的谷物主要产地津巴布韦支持罗伯特•穆加贝(有报道称,中国已经获得授权,在津巴布韦南部种植25万英亩,相当于一千平方公里的玉米)。在老挝、刚果、印尼和柬埔寨,中国公司已经在种植农产品,将直接进入中国的国内市场(有时还使用中国的劳动力),而且中国政府正在探索将购买外国耕地确定为国策。对于全球而言,这就意味着大量的小米、玉米、水稻和其他作物将永远不会进入公开市场。

在这一新的现实面前,在与实施国家资本主义的国家争锋时,对于政策制定者不能控制战略性资产(石油、天然气、铀、海洋航路,以及日益重要的水和作物)的国家,可能会处于地缘政治的不利地位。这里不是说不同经济举措之是非曲直,仅仅是对显而易见事物的陈述而已。相对于仅仅从跨国公司收取钻探费的国家而言,面对一个有能力切断欧洲能源供应的俄国政府,必须要更加好好地掂量一番。在一个日益转型的地缘政治世界,这确实是一个极其巨大的谈判优势。

认为市场总是对的国家,形势的变化使其陷入困境。在2006年八国集团峰会前夕,加拿大总理斯蒂芬•哈珀为自己的一方辩护称:“我们信奉基于竞争市场原则,而不是自顾自的垄断政治战略,自由交换能源产品。”问题是,越来越多的国家政府不认为自顾自有什么错——包括获得粮食供应。

克里奥·帕斯卡尔:英国皇家国际事务研究所(查塔姆研究所)副研究员,并在印度马尼帕尔大学地缘政治系担任客座教职。

首页图片版权归属WFP/Jim Holmes

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Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

食品安全从国内开始

中国当然有权利考虑食品安全问题,但是如果中国可以更多地保护自己的耕地,我会更加地赞同它这个政策。中国人吹捧自己对生态平衡有多敏感和中国农业有多么地“协调”发展。但是从历史记录中看到,中国一步一步地把曾经肥沃的土地变成沙漠---更是最近,用化学物质来污染土地,在可耕地上建造楼房,然后逐渐让它变成一片废土。如果中国真的重视食品安全,那么现在不就是中国需开始保护自己的土地,而不要到非洲去破坏别人领域的时候了吗?

Food security begins at home

China has every right to think about food security, but I would have more sympathy for this policy if China had taken more care of its own productive land. Chinese people boast about how ecologically sensitive and "harmonious" Chinese agriculture is, but the historical record shows that the Chinese have steadily turned a once lush and fertile land into desert -- and more recently, polluted it with chemicals, built on it and generally trashed it. If China is serious about food security, isn't it time the Chinese began to take care of their own land instead of moving out to Africa to destroy other peoples' fields

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

说的夸张了

我不是农业专家,所以我不知道在海外买地生产食物出口到中国的做法是否是明智的。但我确实知道的是什么事只要与中国有关就会受到关注。

请看来自韩国新闻ttp://www.grain.org/nfg/?id=577aper
的文章(1)。文章中说道,日本已经在通过在从东南亚,中国到南美的全球地区购买1千2百万公顷的农田来保障粮食安全。这是日本农田面积的三倍。该文章同时说道,相比之下,韩国官方认可的该国购买的几百公顷的海外农田面积可忽略不计。所以,在二月中旬,韩国举行了一个海外工业发展论坛来作为发展海外农业的一努力。此外,我还通过一名为谷物的非政府组织看到了文章(2),从中你可得知发展海外农业如果还不算是常事,并不是什么中国特有的做法。如果你想了解中国的情况,请看文章(3)

[1]http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200803/200803040011.html [2]http://www.grain.org/nfg/?id=577 [3]http://www.chinadaily.net/hqzg/2008-05/14/content_6683867.htm

overstated

I am not an expert of agriculture policy, so I don’t know whether buying of land overseas to produce food for export to China is sensible or not, but what I do know is that probably one thing can always get attention if it has something to do with China. Please have a look of this article[1] from a South Korean newsphttp://www.grain.org/nfg/?id=577aper, which says Japan has steadily prepared for food security by buying 12 million hectares of croplands around the world, from Southeast Asia and China to South America, three times the size as on its mainland. It also says South Korean’s overseas croplands is negligible in comparison, a few hundred thousand hectares of croplands, admitted by South Korean’s Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, so it established an Overseas Agricultural Development Forum mid-February in an effort to cultivate croplands overseas. But apart from its own website, the only other report around this I can find is in this article[2] from an NGO called “grain”, in which you can see it is not a unique practise, if not common.If you prefer Chinese, you can read article[3].
[1]http://english.chosun.com/w21data/html/news/200803/200803040011.html
[2]http://www.grain.org/nfg/?id=577
[3]http://www.chinadaily.net/hqzg/2008-05/14/content_6683867.htm

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

过于夸大

中国用占世界8%的耕地养活了占世界20%的人口,我认为这并不夸张。其人均土地占有率仅相当于世界平均值的40%,却能保证90%以上的粮食自给自足。当然,日本和韩国的人均土地占有量更少,因此,他们不得不考虑海外垦田。土壤污染退化的主要原因是工业污染引发的水污染和酸雨,另外很小的一部分是由农业操作本身引起的,由此看来,如何能断言中国海外垦田将会“破坏其他国家的土地”?海外垦田,与对外直接投资一样,通常能给所在国家带来先进的技术和良好的操作规范。但是大多情况下,海外垦田收获的农产品只会在当地市场进行买卖,而不是不远万里地运回中国。这是由于其过高的运费以及中国食品价格受到中国政府调控相对较低。如今,全球食物如此短缺,非洲几百万人口面临饥荒,基于人道主义,中国政府不可能将这些农产品运回中国。我认为中国当前应该更多的关注本土的耕地,希望还不算太晚。

Overstated cntd

However, I don’t think it is a “boast” given that China feed about 20% of world population by 8% of world land, i.e. 40% of world average in land possession and remain more than 90% self-reliant. Of course Japanese and Korean may have even less land possession so they have to think about cultivating overseas croplands. The majority of land pollution and degradation are caused by industrial pollutions that coming with polluted river and acid rain, only a small share are due to agricultural operation itself, so how would one claim Chinese would “destroy other peoples' fields” by cultivating croplands? Same as FDI in China, overseas cultivating can usually bring more advanced technology and operation to the recipient countries, but in many cases the products could only be sold to local market instead of exporting back to China, because China has government controlled low food price and transportation is costly. When food is in shortage like now, it would also be both ethically and practically impossible to export food back to China from Africa when so millions people there are starving. I agree that China should have paid far more attention to protect its own lands at first place, and hope it is not too late now.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

过于夸张

事实上,谷类作物并没有引起我们对自由主义市场的关注,也没有减少国际市场的支配,合作和控制作用。但是对中国来说,依靠国际市场来确保粮食供应是不行的。中国对主食大米的消费是国际上大米的贸易量的六到七倍。综合各种实际困难和政治的敏感度来看,我仍不明白中国如何成功实行“从外国购买耕地并实施中央政府政策”,况且什么是所谓的“中央政府政策”也很难想象。有趣的是我发现了一篇名为“投资者眼中的中国农业”的文章,写于2003年。该篇文章并没有提到令人担忧的种种情形。Tao Wang

[4]http://search.ft.com/ftArticle?queryText=China+eyes+overseas+land+in+food+push&y=0&aje=true&x=0&id=030929007052&ct=0
该评论由Stacy Xu 翻译

Overstated cntd

In fact, the grain does address some of the concern between market liberalisation and called to reduce the dominance of international markets and the corporations controlling them. However China cannot rely on international market for its food supply. China’s consumption on rice, the most staple food in China, is 6-7 times of the total volume of world rice trade.

Given all these difficulties and political sensitivity, I still didn’t find out how China could make “the purchase of farmland in foreign countries central government policy” and what does it mean “central government policy”. Interesting I found another article in FT in 2003, “Foreign investors eye Chinese farming”[4], certainly that article didn’t make anyone worry.

Tao Wang

[4]http://search.ft.com/ftArticle?queryText=China+eyes+overseas+land+in+food+push&y=0&aje=true&x=0&id=030929007052&ct=0

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

回复:过于夸张

农业用地的退化不只是由环境污染引起的,虽然污染的确是近来的一个重要的因素。但如果你用更长期的视角考察这一问题,你会发现中国的环境历史可以说是一部长达两千年的土地退化、过度开垦和沙漠化的历史。Mark Elvin的著作“The Retreat of the Elephants”是关于这一问题的最为详尽的一本书。

[该评论由Zhou Chen翻译]

re overstated

It's not the case that the degradation of agricultural land is only due to pollution, though pollution is a big recent factor. But if you take a longer view, you find that China's environmental history is one of nearly two thousand years of land degradation, over exploitation and desertification. Mark Elvin's book The Retreat of the Elephants is the most comprehensive account of it.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

牲畜浪费世界上1/3的谷物

大家好,我在worldtoday.com的自己博客的第一篇文章上注意到21亿吨的谷类食物(谷物+大豆)中的约35%的营养物质在动物生长转化中浪费。动物在生长中消耗了大部分的粮食,而最后我们只可以从它们那里得到我们投入的10%物质。因为这个严重的问题以及上面所涉及到的课题,我决定做一个素食者。我感觉好极啦!

Livestock waste 1/3 of the world's grain!

Hi All. In the first post on my blog at thisworldtoday.com I noted that of the 2100 million tonnes of cereal (grain + soy) grown - about 35% of that nutrition will be inefficiently wasted in the conversion to animals. Animals use most of the food during their lifespan and at the end of their life we can only get 10% back of what we put in.

This is a serious problem as well as the issues mentioned above.

I go vegetarian for this reason and others. I feel great.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

您说得对!

牲畜不仅仅浪费世界上1/3的谷物,在谷物和蔬菜的烹饪过程中,我们还浪费了大量的能量,大米的水煮过程还是必要的,但是把蔬菜炒熟就是完全多余了,完全可以做成沙拉,如果觉得缺盐,可以放在水里一起喝。酱油,醋,和油,并不是人体的必需,这些调味品的生产同时也浪费了大量的能源和农作物,必须抛弃。对了,大米和各种蔬菜本身也是对能源的浪费,因为它们的可食用部分仅仅是全部光合作用产物的一小部分。我建议以后全球耕地只种红薯,因为红薯是农作物中亩产最高的,而且不可食用的茎和叶还能做成饲料。

-Aturen

You're Right!

Livestock not only wastes one third of the world’s grain but we also waste a large amount of energy during the process of cooking grain and vegetables . The process of boiling rice is necessary but frying vegetables is excessive when we can just as easily make salads. If it lacks salt then put it in water and drink it together. Soy sauce, vinegar and oil are just not essentials for the body and the production of these seasoning products also wastes a lot of energy and crops. We must give this up. It’s true that rice and various vegetables themselves also waste energy because the edible part is only a small part of what is produced. I suggest from now on we only plant sweet potatoes in the world's arable areas because sweet potatoes are amongst the most productive crops per acre and the inedible stalks and leaves can still be used as fodder.

Comment Translated by Mike

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

物价上涨和危机

亚洲国家是世界主要的生产者和供应商,其经济结构正在向城市化发展,导致了农业用地及产量的减少.
城市经济的发展加速了将农业用地改建为城市和建筑,以满足城市人口及工业发展的需要.在过去的10年里,发展中国家的耕地20%以上已经变成了城市和建筑,而城市附近的农村耕地一半以上已经被城市所吞并. 这张从空中拍的图片清楚地显示了城市化的飞速腾跃,请点击查看. http://www.sadashivan.com/distressingfacts/id7.html

Food price rises and Crisis!!!!

Asian countries being major producer and suppliers to the world are changing their economic pattern to urbanized growth resulting reduced agricultural land and its produce. Urban related economic growth thrusts agricultural land conversion to cities and building to accommodate urban population and industries. Over 20% of farm lands of developing countries have been converted to cities and buildings for the past decades and Over 50% of farmlands of villages (close to cities) got merged with cities. Check my aerial photo which clearly indicate the steep rise in urbanization. http://www.sadashivan.com/distressingfacts/id7.html

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

粮食危机?

粮食与饥荒危机的问题已存在了很长时间。只是最近,由于许多我们无法解决的问题积重难返,导致这些危机集中显现。一些国家的人民因吃的太多而造成肥胖,相反的一些国家却在闹饥荒。我们消耗过多而不知满足,其他人却死于饥荒。对于这些挑战,应该怎样制定持久的解决方案呢?外来提供的食物和金钱只是暂时性的救济。这种不平衡将持续恶化,直到我们下决心面对一切问题的真实原因——我们的自我主义。相对于自然界的规律——利他主义,我们已经失去了平衡。在世界人口日益增长的情况下,寻求外来的解决方法已不足以解决这些势不可挡的问题。问题和解决办法都在于我们自己。我们需要抛弃自我主义,支持利他主义。查看全文http://www.kabtoday. com/epaper_eng/conte nt/view/epaper/7771/ (page)/1/(article)/7 773 (秀錂译)

Food Crisis?

The food and hunger crisis has been around for a long time. It is only now, under the crushing weight of many problems and man's inability to solve them that a crisis rapidly unfolds. We have countries that are overfed and obese while others teem with starvation and poverty. We consume more and are less fulfilled while others die for lack of a meal.

What is to be done to enact a lasting solution to these challenges? External fixes like giving food or money provide only temporary relief.

These imbalances will continue to grow until we confront the real cause of all our problems-our egoism. We are out of balance with nature's law, the law of altruism.

With a rapidly expanding population in the world, we are overwhelmed when looking to external solutions. The problem and the solution reside in us by exiting our egoism and embracing altruism.

For a complete article on this visit http://www.kabtoday.
com/epaper_eng/conte
nt/view/epaper/7771/
(page)/1/(article)/7
773

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

现实

美国补助作物的唯一原因是保持土地的质量以及防止农民过度耕作和破坏沃土。另一方面,中国粮食供给也因国家政策存在一些问题。中国人应该醒悟并意识到他们的政策并不成果,难以维持人们的生活。 不过,我喜欢“国家资本主义”的描述。

Reality

The only reason why the US subsidizes its crops is to protect the quality of their land and prevent farmers from over producing and damaging the fertile soil. In the other hand, it seems like China has a problem feeding the people because their government communist policies. Unless the Chinese people wake up and realize that you can only sustain yourself for so long with failed policies because you can only thrive for so long. Nice spin though with "nationalistic capitalism"