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“人类需要第二次绿色革命”

诺贝尔物理学奖获得者、美国能源部长朱棣文在接受山姆•吉尔的采访时谈到能源的未来和作为决策者所应关注的首要问题。

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美国能源部长朱棣文在就职前接受了“中外对话”副总编山姆·吉尔的采访,就中国的能源未来和决策者对于一个逐渐变暖的世界所肩负的责任发表了他的看法。 以下是采访内容节选。

山姆·吉尔(以下简称“吉”):在没有制造业输出的情况下,各国能不能把能源的使用和排放问题脱钩?


朱棣文(以下简称“朱”):美国的做法是将一部分能源密集型工业,例如塑料行业,转移到其他国家生产。钢铁和水泥只有一少部分采用离岸外包的方式生产,没有你们所想象的那么多,因为中国消费的大部分钢铁和水泥都是自己生产的。我们只是某种程度上采取离岸外包的方式,而非全部。

商用建筑和住宅建筑占我们能源消耗的40%。火车、卡车、飞机、私人轿车等交通工具占28%。 工业排在最后。我认为我们可以将建筑能源消耗降低至1/4甚至1/5。中国的建筑能源消耗是65%,所以,如果中国的建筑能源消耗也能降低这么多,并且真正地提高效率,就能够实现脱钩。

钢铁、水泥、铝业等都是能源消耗很高的工业。但是在美国,水泥工业的能源消耗已经降低了30%,化学工业也同样降低了大约25%到30%。但是,能不能达到零消耗呢?绝对不能。

吉:对于气候变化,决策者的首要任务是什么?

朱:斯特恩报告认为有50%的可能在本世纪内气温将会升高5摄氏度,这将会导致巨大的负面效应和经济损失。因此,为保险起见,还是尽量将温度的升高控制在5度以下。尽量保持在1到2摄氏度。我想目前已经达到1度了。

人们还没有意识到目前的温度和冰河时代的温度之间的差别是6摄氏度。现在美国的俄亥俄州和宾夕法尼亚州在冰河时代曾经常年覆盖着冰雪。变化如此之大,所以,从另一方面看,5度也会导致巨大的变化。

国家之间边界的形成需要上千年的时间,我们该如何处理边界问题?某些地区将变得不适于居住。人们还担心赤道附近的农业将面临着崩溃的危险。富人们总会有生路,而对数百万的穷人而言,却有可能是死路一条。

吉:能源和气候变化危机还能够导致激烈的争端。

朱:海平面升高。如果北部苔原融化了,将会释放出大量的碳。如果格陵兰岛融化了,南极洲的一部分融化了,孟加拉国1.4亿的人口中有一半可能将永远地失去他们的家园。他们会流落到哪里?印度吗?那印度怎么办?由此导致的经济、社会、和政治等方面的后果会非常严峻。

吉:中美两国仍然依赖煤炭,我们该如何解决这个问题?

朱:我们需要找到清洁地利用煤炭的方法。也就是说,找到收集二氧化碳的方法。这些办法都成本高昂。我想可以把它安全地储藏起来,但是必须经过论证,因为公众非常谨慎。公众不喜欢风力发电,有些人不喜欢水电大坝,核电肯定也不受欢迎。在我的观念中,二氧化碳排放对生命的威胁要远大于原子能。并且需要上千种贮藏方式。所以,除非你确实能够证明这些方式是安全的,否则,你将会官司缠身,而且事情一拖就是几年。你必须经过研究,向公众证明它的安全性。你还要研究收集它的更好的方法。

我认为对碳封存进行投资是十分必要的。为了使发电厂更高效,高温冶金是必要的。目前,燃煤发电的最高效率为40%到42%,还应该可以提升到50%以上。中国的燃煤电厂的效率在30%左右。印度的更低,还不到30%。所以,效率其实可以提升一倍,那将是非常可观的了。

吉:您对中国的决策者有什么建议吗?

朱:中国面临的主要问题是能源利用的效率问题。中国的能耗标准还算合理,但是比不上欧洲。他们正在对高耗能工业和煤电厂进行清理,而且正在加大力度,这是好消息。

我认为美国可以开展碳封存技术的研究。这种研究很多是不受知识产权保护的。问题是:“我们现在知道怎么做,他们也能这么做。”从地球化学的角度而言,事态会如何发展是我们应该探寻的问题。但是,对于中国而言,他们可以通过阅读资料来了解。然后,或许我们可以合作开发其他技术。

吉:您对生物燃料怎么看?

朱:用我的话说就是,有101种错误的处理方法,还有几种正确的处理方法。我当然不支持外国乙醇。我们需要尽快摆脱对玉米的依赖。我不赞成砍伐印度尼西亚的雨林来种植棕榈油。失去雨林将对气候造成更大的损失。

吉:您曾说人类需要第二次绿色革命。

朱:我认为,我们之所以需要第二次绿色革命是因为我们没有遵循可持续发展的原则来进行耕作。我们过量地使用化肥。存在严重的温室气体问题和水系污染问题。到了认真审视我们的农业技术的时候了。

吉:我们该如何使之实现呢?

朱:一部分靠教育,一部分靠激励,还有一部分靠管制。至少在美国,过量地使用肥料源自无知和化肥商人的强势销售。 “如果使用这么多化肥的效果很好,那么两倍的用量效果会更好。”没错,效果是更好了,但是,可能仅比原来好了10%。并且,农户不需要负担治理水污染、硝酸盐流失和产生一氧化二氮等一系列问题的花费。

吉:您认为哥本哈根会议所面临的重大挑战是什么?

朱:关于世界的未来,我不想让我自己听起来太戏剧化,我非常希望美国及其新一届的政府能够起到带头作用。如果美国一马当先,那么,我想,中国和印度就会紧随其后。因为,他们受气候变化的影响要比我们严重,而且,他们也明白这点。但是,我认为如果美国不带头的话,他们是不会带头行动的。所以,如果美国起到表率作用,并且愿意开发并分享技术,那么将会产生深远的影响。

中国已经开始担心了。气候变化对水资源供给的影响已经开始显现。华北地区,黄河已经开始断流;青藏高原的冰雪正在迅速地融化,森林也开始退化。森林退化是世界性的问题。一但失去森林,水域也会随之而去。树木对于土地来说是有魔力的,它们能够锁住水源。

吉:哥本哈根决议中的关键问题是什么?

朱:碳的国际市场价格:我们需要一个对它加以管制的方法,以保证有一个价格底线。我们不希望价格崩溃。就像联邦储备委员会通过调整利率来调整美国的经济一样,我们必须建立起对价格加以限制的机制。我们可以通过控制竞拍到的碳信用额度或者拍卖底价来进行调节。这对长期投资而言是至关重要的。

在价格失效的地方就需要用制度来进行规范。带有保温层的房屋永远不会在价格上具有吸引力。这就需要采用胡萝卜加大棒的激励手段。我认为,各国会理性地加强能源方面的研究。丹麦就深谙这一点:他们关注他们的风电产业和(用于生物燃料生产的)酶制剂工业这样的产业,并从这些产业中获得了很高的收益。对于他们而言,这是很好的商业机会。

吉:某个公司或许会发现真正具有变革意义的革新。


朱:没错,他们会因此而收益颇丰。

我非常希望光电技术能够更加完善。没有哪条物理定律规定光电技术不能价格低廉并且达到25%的效率。所以,我认为光电技术有更大的发展空间。但是,要实现它可能需要10到20年的时间。

可以与之相提并论的是建筑物的能源效率问题。其中的一个问题就是使用该建筑物的人们不知道如何提高建筑物的能效。我在我自己的实验室就发现类似的情况:一个崭新的建筑,人们不知道如何控制它的热通风系统,温度摇摆不定,不是太热就是太冷。这种情况持续了2个月,直到最后有人帮我们来控制它。人们不知道如何控制建筑物,所以就需要使建筑物智能化。我认为这一领域会非常具有潜力。这是否具有变革意义?其结果或许是吧。


山姆·吉尔是“中外对话”的副总编。

朱棣文,目前是美国第12任能源部长。1997年因其发明了用激光冷却和俘获原子的方法而荣获诺贝尔物理学奖。

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Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory

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Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

唉,我们什么时候变成了建筑能耗大国

朱部长说了几件事情。第一,碳的捕捉和封存技术很重要,但是目前还不成熟,什么时候成熟还是个未知数;第二,美国要起到带头作用,恐怕也只有美国能起到这种先锋模范作用;第三,就是碳的定价问题很重要。另外,中国需要加快脚步,积极应对气候变化。我真是不明白,我们的建筑物那儿消耗了这么多能源?这个数据是谁提供的?美国的建筑物设计温度是18.3摄氏度(65华氏度),咱们没别人那么奢侈,我们的房子就是个筒子,一围起来,搬进去住就可以了,没啥过高的新风量,室内空气质量的要求,照明嘛,马马虎虎,看得见就行了,也许有些浪费可能不假。我们什么时候建筑占了60%,简直就是笑话。
这个主要矛盾,就是我们的工业怎么节能不解决,我看,谈来谈去,吵来吵去,哥本哈根还会一事无成,核心问题都不清楚,怎么谈?我也许是杞人忧天了,但愿是的。

[email protected]

When did China become a country that consumes so much energy from buildings?

Mr Chu talked about a number of issues. Firstly, that carbon capture and sequestration technologies are extremely important but still not advanced, and there is no knowing when they will be ready to implement; Secondly, the US must take the lead, and I am afraid that only the US can play such a vanguard and exemplary role; Thirdly, carbon pricing is an important issue. In addition, China should increase their pace and actively respond to climate change. I really don’t understand where our buildings consume so much energy? Who provides this data? In the US, the designated temperature of building is 18.3 degrees Celsius (65 degrees Fahrenheit). Chinese don't have such good conditions -- our houses are boxes -- we just move in and live as best we can, never asking for high air circulation, requesting certain levels of indoor air quality and so on. As for lighting, as long as you can see, then it’s good enough. Perhaps the claim that there is some wastage has an element of truth but saying that 60% of our energy use goes on buildings is simply a joke.

The key question is how this industry can save energy. For me, it appears to be all talk. Perhaps nothing will be achieved during the Copenhagen Conference. If the core problem is not clear, how can it be discussed? Perhaps I'm being unduly pessimistic. I hope so. [email protected]
(Translated by Tian Liang)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

真诚平等合作

中国现时的经济结构还是出口制品主导,在全球经济下滑的大环境下,出口大幅放慢而失业率上升也许是中国走向经济及能源转型的好机会,就如访谈的最后一点.希拉里访华时形容中国为气候合作伙伴,希望中美双方能在碳封存和洁净能源技术的研究及开发上能真诚合作.另外,我相信美国还能创造多一些贸易平等协议,使得发展中国家在控制能源效率的同时能进行建设发展.

Sincere and equal cooperation

China's economy is currently still export-oriented. In the context of global economy meltdown, export is decreasing and the rate of unemployment is increasing. This might be an excellent opportunity for China to transform the economy and energy structures. During her visit to China, Hilary described China as a partner in climate cooperation and said she hoped that China and the US could cooperate seriously towards the research and development of carbon sequestration and clean energy technologies. I believe that the US should also be able to make more fair trade agreements so that developing countries could focus on economic development while at the same time controlling energy efficiency.
(Translated by Tian Liang)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

一针见血

我喜欢朱棣文,非常简洁,比如他关于生物燃料的观点,“中国的建筑能耗是65%”。我觉得他打算节省45%……(包括在建造、管理和拆迁过程中生产、运输材料的所有能源)
http://www.nrdc.org/air/energy/china/greenbuildings.asp -sustainablejohn
(田亮翻译)

succinct and to the point

I like Chu, very succinct, like in his point about biofuels.

"China's energy use if 65% buildings" I think he meant to say 45%... (this is including all the energy required to make and transport the materials to build the building, construct, operate and deconstruct)
http://www.nrdc.org/air/energy/china/greenbuildings.asp

-sustainablejohn

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

中国工业和信息化部节能司证实了我的看法

昨晚正好和工业和信息化部节能司的同志吃饭。席间,我特意问了我们中国工业能耗占全国比例的问题。回答有二,一,建设部的统计口径认为建筑能耗占了全国能耗的70%;二,工业和信息化部认为工业能耗占了全国能耗的70%。据说是统计口径不同,建设部认为只要有建筑物的地方,哪怕只是个棚子,也算是建筑物的范畴。所以,除了露天的工厂,比如石油化工装置,采石场等,其它任何设施都是属于“建筑能耗”。这个就是咱们中国,什么事情都要争一个高低,别说外国人,我们自己人都被搞糊涂了。你觉得你个说的比较准确些?

My opinion is confirmed

Last night I happened to have dinner with some officials from Ministry of Energy, the Department of Industry and Information Technology. I asked them how much the industrial energy consumption counted in the national total. They gave me two conflicting answers. One was that the Department of Construction put buildings energy consumption at 70% of the national total, while the other was that the Department of Industry and Information Technology considered industrial energy consumption counting for 70% of the national total. The disparity was reportedly due to different criteria adopted by the two departments in their calculations. According to that of the Department of Construction, any standing construction, - even a shed - was to be counted as “buildings”. Therefore, except for open-air factories, such as petrochemical infrastructure and quarries, the energy consumption of all other constructions was to be counted as “building energy consumption”. This reflects the reality of China, that is, people vie for No. 1 ranking in any field. The result is that every one, foreigners and Chinese alike, are confused. Can you decide which one is closer to the fact, my dear reader? (translated by Yang bin)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

我支持绿色

让我很开心的就是,连大货车和汽车公司,吊杆货车,吊货车,等等,都变成绿色。大家都要起自己的作用,而且该办法是个很好的例子。
(Jacob Fromer翻译)

I agree with green

It is very nice to see that even big truck and automotive companies, boom trucks, crane trucks, etc,etc switching over to going Green. Everyone has to play there part and this is a great example of how to do it.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

崇尚科学 传播文明

老子说:“我恒有三宝:一曰慈,二曰俭,三曰不敢为天下先。”虽然这古训倍受推崇,但实际只不过是一张“护身符”,“不敢为天下先”,就是不敢勇于探索,不敢锐意创新,是科学进步之大敌。我认为,在这腾飞的新时代,人人都要敢为天下先!
敢为天下先是科学进步的动力。无论是在中国历史上,还是在世界历史上,科学的进步和发展无不体现出人们崇尚科学敢为天下先的精神。
人 类文明的发展,离不开科学,而科学技术的发展,离不开敢为天下先的精神。
1880年1月6日《纽约时报》的社论说:爱迪生的电灯绝不是汽灯的竞争对手。要点8只电灯就要配一台发电机,所以整个纽约起码要25万台发电机。而一台发电机的费用为400美元,总共需要7、5亿美元的投资,这显然是不可能的。该报还引用了一位著名的电汽学家的“权威”意见:“电灯可能会昙花一现般热闹一时,但过不了多久,爱迪生的名字将同他的电灯一起销声匿迹。”然而,爱迪生以他敢为天下先的精神,刻苦公关,在第二年秋天,就建成了发电厂并开始运转,为纽约的几个地区和费城提供了电力。
这样的事例很多。在灿烂的世界文明史中,出现了很多的先行者,如中华之神农冒生命危险,尝遍百草,创亘古未有之事,使后代子孙享福延寿;有的为追求真理,不惜献出生命。如布鲁诺为维护哥白尼发现和创立的“日心说”理论,而触怒了罗马教皇统治信奉“地心说”的宗教裁判所,最后被侩子手绑在罗马广场的铁柱上,活活烧死。我国科学家,在外国专家半途撤走后,奋战在大沙漠中,制造出了中国第一棵原子弹,给外国专家一个有力回击。在改革开放的今天,我国的科学家在基因工程、超导领域、运载火箭、大型计算机研制等方面敢于做前人没有做过的事,使这些科研项目走在了世界的前列。老鼠头上培育出人耳和克隆牛羊的事在我们国家已没有什么奇怪了。
是的,创新、探索,勇为天下先的精神是社会变革的一种动力,没有第一个吃螃蟹的人,就没有今天的佳肴;没有无谓的探索者,人类就无法生存。我们需要赞美“第一”,需要赞美科学家或探索者的勇气。正是历史上出现的第一人的发明和创造,科学才会发展,社会才会进步,文明才会提高。那些因循守旧,不思进取的人是享受不到创新者的喜悦的。
时代在进步,科学在进步,文明在发展。21世纪,强国如林。中国将以什么样的面貌,自立于21世纪的世界民族之林,“敢为天下先”的精神更加重要,但最决取决于人的素质,中国人民需要文明,要达到这一点,只能提高自己的科学文化素质和思想道德素质。
时代需要我们——勇于探索的新一代,我们更需要敢为天下先的气概,更需要领略先辈的创新业绩,更需要领略先辈的探索业绩!只有开拓,只有进取,只有探索,只有创新,只有敢为天下先,我们才能前不负古人,后无愧于来者!

Advocate science and spread culture

Laozi said" I have three treasured objects: kindness, thrift and daring not to precede the world. Although this adage is spoken highly of, as a matter of fact, it is no more than an amulet. Daring not to precede the world is daring not to explore and strive for originality, which is a big enemy for the development of science. In my opinion, everyone should have the courage to be the first in these rapidly developing times. Daring to be the first is the motive of scientific development. Whether in the history of China or the world, the advances and development of science can both embody those people who advocate science and that spirit of daring to be the first. The development of human's culture can not be held separate from science. Furthermore the development of scientific technology can not be realized without this spirit. On April 6th 1880, a commentary in the New York Times said Edison's electric light couldn't match the vapor lamp and that because eight electric bulbs need a generator to work, it would require 250,000 generators to power the whole of New York. However, a generator costs $400 and an investment of $500-700 million in total. Apparently, this is impossible. This report quoted authorized opinions of a famous expert in electrics who commented that electric light would disappear with Edison before long, after momentary prosperity.

However, Edison, with his spirit and diligence on the project, completed his generating factory and it began to operate, providing electricity for several districts across New York and Philadelphia. These kinds of examples are numerous. In foreign cultures, there have been many adventurers. For example, Chinese Shennong, who risked his life tasting hundreds of different herbal medicines, with an unprecedented disregard for his own life, for the sake of future generations. Also, there was Bruno who irritated the Roman tribunal ruled by pontiff who believed in geocentric theory in order to uphold heliocentric theory put forward and established by Copernicus. Finally, he was tied by the executioners to the iron pole in Rome square and burnt to death. After foreign experts were withdrawn halfway, Chinese scientists strived on the desert and produced the first A-bomb and stroke back strongly. Today with the policy of reform and openness, our scientists dare to set foot onto paths that haven't been trod by others such as genetic engineering, superconductor fields, carrier rockets and the research and design on mainframe computers, which have allowed China to take the lead in these fields.

It is not strange in China - breeding an ear on mouse's head and the cloned sheep and cow. It is true that creativity, exploration and the spirit of daring to be the first are the pulses of social revolutions. Without the first person who ate the crab, there would be no such rich meals now. But for those undaunted explorers, humanity couldn't have survived this long. We need to praise the pioneers and the courage of scientists or explorers. It is because of the inventions and creations of the pioneers that science can develop, society can advance and cultures can be elevated. Those with conformism who don’t think of progress will never experience the joys of the innovators. Times are advancing, society is making progress and cultures are developing. In the 21st century, strong countries are like extensive forests. What appearance China will show to stand proudly in the family of nations. The spirit is more important however, and more dependent on the quality of the people. Chinese people need education and in order to achieve this, all we can do is to upgrade our cultural and scientific ability and our ideological and ethical standards. The times need us - the new generation who are brave enough to explore. We are more in need of the spirit of daring to be the first, while appreciating the creative and exploratory achievements made by predecessors. We will live up to the ancients' expectations and have a clear conscience to the posterity with exploitation, enterprising spirit, explorations, creativity and the spirit of daring to be the first.
本评论由陈丽英(anna)翻译。

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匿名 | Anonymous

产业转移:一些“危言耸听”的话

在全球化的时代,美国将一些高耗能、高污染的工业转移到中国等发展中国家,难道这能称得上是一种减排之道吗?恐怕不是吧。资本的逐利性导致的后果是发展中国家成了发达国家转嫁发展成本的替罪羊,所谓的全球化的美好前景在跨国环境危机面前是苍白无力的。试想一下,当空气污染严重到令人无法呼吸的程度时,还奢谈什么民主?当土壤被严重毒化时,哪里还有什么经济发展?当发达国家的有毒垃圾倾倒在穷国的海岸上时,国际法又在哪里?

Industrial shift: A bit of alarmist talk

During the process of globalization, the United States is one of many countries who consume a lot of energy and pollute a lot. That’s why their industries have shifted to China, a developing country. Could it be that it is suitable to call this a form of emissions reduction? I’m afraid it isn’t. The consequences of pursuing the advantages of capitalism are that developing countries become the scapegoats for developed countries who have transferred their development costs. The so called happy prospects of globalization become pale and useless when the cost of a multinational environmental crisis is considered. Imagine for a minute, when air pollution reaches the level where it makes human unable to breathe, what kind of democracy will we be talking about? When the soil is poisoned, where will there be economic development? When the poisonous garbage of the developed countries is dumped on the poor countries’ coasts, where will international law be? (Translated by Michelle Deeter)

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匿名 | Anonymous

效率为先!

从中国的国情来看,在效率方面能够做好文章就会带来较大的成功,但是,从长期来看,这是远远不够的。我们不应在走发达国家曾经走过的老路,即使走也要走得不同和高明。多结合中国的国情来制定规划,开展实施。努力将一些口号和理念化为一种真正地能力和动力,走可持续发展之路。
(YZHK)

Efficiency first!

Looking at the conditions within China, with regards to efficiency, China is able to write good articles and bring about some comparatively large successes, but looking at the long term, this is nowhere near enough. We should not go down the old road that developed countries have already trodden, even if we do, we must walk it differently and more cleverly. We must incorporate China's situation into our plans more when we set them out and when we begin to implement them. We must work hard to turn a few slogans and concepts into true capability and momentum to follow the path of sustainable development. (YZHK) (Translated by Jodie Gardiner)

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buckettruck

回顾之时

回顾之时,这些事情的重要性一如朱先生所试图言说的一样。哥本哈根会议是一个完全的灾难——它试图从发展国家与发展中国家之间谈判出一条显著减轻污染的道路。不幸的是,我们等待改变所耗的时间愈长,想要改变效果就愈加困难。诸如bucket trucks的公用设施,应当如高污染企业一样被列入条例之中。一切都应被限制——无论是大型污染者,还是小型污染户。

Looking Back

Looking back, these issues were as important as Mr. Chu made them out to be. The conference in Copenhagen was a complete and utter disaster when it comes to negotiating a way for developed and un-developed countries to moderate their pollution by a significant amount. Unfortunately, the longer we wait to make these significant changes, the harder it will be to reverse the effects. Utility equipment like bucket trucks, should be regulated as much as high polluting factories. Everything should be limited from the biggest polluters to the smallest polluters.

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raysonsmith

回复

我们仅余的方法是捕捉二氧化碳并将其封存在固体容器里。已经没有完全绿色无污染的资源留给我们了。http://www.toplinecar.com/
二手车和旧车是环境污染的主要源头,应该被禁止。

Re:

The method which is left for us in capturing of carbon dioxide and packing it into a solid container. There is no source of energy left for us that is entirely green and do not pollute. Used Cars for sale and old cars on the roads are the major source of environmental pollution and should be banned