中国与世界,环境危机大家谈

china and the world discuss the environment

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Inequality, trust and opportunity

Olivia Bina

Viriato Soromenho-Marques

Readinch

In the climate crisis, China can be seen as both perpetrator and victim. Olivia Bina and Viriato Soromenho-Marques dismiss the finger pointing and look for a constructive, sustainable way forward.

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The social theorist David Harvey argues that globalisation is leading to time-space compression. Indeed the world does appear to be changing before our eyes at unprecedented speed. The return of China on the economic and political scene as a major actor is a clear sign of the pace and scale of such change.

In terms of the great debate of our time -- what to do about climate change -- the country is now on centre stage. As we approach the United Nations Climate Change Conference in December 2009 in Copenhagen, Denmark, a growing number of fingers point accusingly at China, with its “ravenous” quest for resources --particularly energy -- and its rising contribution to greenhouse-gas emissions. The country is considered to be the world's second-largest emitter of carbon dioxide and it already may have overtaken the United States for first place.

China also is regarded as a woefully inefficient user of energy and is said to be consuming more than twice as much as can be provided by its own ecosystem (an ecological footprint equivalent to two Chinas). chinadialogue, for one, has provided evidence and explanations for many of these trends by attempting to provide a balanced view of the facts and opinions from east and west. In the same spirit, this contribution outlines the arguments for a constructive perspective of China’s role in global climate change and related negotiations.

If one agrees that there is a need to find an urgent solution to climate change, then it seems reasonable to state that China is a decisive player. Without China, there can be no post-Kyoto agreement in time to avoid the worst scenarios envisaged by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. The following reflections are based on this assumption. Given global inequality and the pervasive lack of trust between developed and developing nations, it seems irresponsible to point accusing fingers at China. If anything, because the country stands precisely in between those categories (which roughly equate to the Annex 1 and non-Annex 1 signatories of the Kyoto Protocol), and thanks to its rising importance on the global stage, China could be the catalyst for ending the current stalemate.

China’s government is quick to remind the world that it remains a developing country (especially for the purposes of the common but differentiated responsibilities" principle). However, it is undeniable that China stands in between the categories of perpetrator and victim, and of problem and solution. With three decades at an average annual 9% growth, China is still very much a developing nation.

However, its resource consumption and pollution levels are overtaking those of the wealthiest nations (though not in per capita terms). According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), the world’s primary energy needs are projected to grow by 55% from 2005 to 2030. China’s primary energy demand is projected to more than double, its oil demand for transport will almost quadruple by 2030 and its net imports of coal (currently almost 70% of its energy mix) may reach 7% of the global coal trade in 2030.

In the IEA reference scenario, CO2 emissions jump 57% between 2005 and 2030 with the United States, China, Russia and India contributing two-thirds. China’s per-capita emissions in 2030 would be only 40% of those of the United States and about two-thirds those of the OECD countries. According to this data, China is by far the biggest contributor to incremental emissions over that period. Essentially, the country is on a path to build the largest carbon economy on the planet. Hence the label of “perpetrator”, and the perception that China should take responsibility and reduce its emissions.

If these are sobering figures, the implications of the pace and scale of China’s growth for the environment are more sobering still. In terms of “victim”, like many other developing countries, China stands to suffer from a range of impacts, including rising sea levels, increased droughts and erratic rainfall patterns. However, given the limited per-capita resource base of the country and growing pressure on resources from rapid growth, China could be one of the “biggest victims” of climate change, in the words of professor Hu Angang of Tsinghua University.

But in what way can China represent both the problem and the solution? When we consider this question from the country’s perspective, climate change becomes both a threat that China cannot ignore and a constraint that must be overcome.

The government is well aware of the link between the country’s environmental vulnerability and the Communist Party’s overriding objective of maintaining social stability through poverty reduction and economic prosperity. President Hu Jintao places this link at the centre of his Report to the Seventeenth National Congress of the Communist Party of China on October 15, 2007. He states that the aim of further “sound and rapid economic growth” and the quadrupling of “per capita GDP of the year 2000 by 2020” cannot be questioned.

The party “must regard development as the top priority… of decisive significance for building a moderately prosperous society”, he continued. But he also acknowledges that limited resources mandate that the guiding principles for economic achievement must include a “responsibility system for conserving energy and reducing emissions”, and the optimising of “economic returns while reducing consumption of resources and protecting the environment”.

These principles relate directly to the highly acclaimed “Scientific Outlook on Development”, now enshrined in the party’s constitution. Hence, there must be growth, but this growth will have to be efficient and with an emphasis on clean technologies and renewable sources of energy.

In other words, we should not expect China to give up its vision of a better quality of life for its people, but we can expect China to move onto a more environmentally sustainable path. The reason is that the Chinese government is aware that the primary constraint to environmentally friendly growth is the economy’s dependence on coal and its unwanted by-product, carbon dioxide (CO2). Furthermore, the government accepts that this is a finite world, and a solution must be found to the management of the commons, including the atmosphere’s capacity to absorb emissions.

Yu Qingtai, China's top climate-change envoy, acknowledges that climate change “affects not only the development of the global economy and prosperity, but also the very existence of mankind”. The single most significant factor of population size and impact is inextricably linked to the country’s perception of limits, both within its borders and in terms of neighbouring countries.

Yet the future of the commons is likely to depend as much on the change of unsustainable practices of the richest 20% of the world population (which are responsible for 63% of emissions) as on the population policy and development path choices of countries such as China and India. The commitment to a single-child policy is a price that no other country besides China has contemplated, but all stand to benefit from it, given finite common resources.

Moreover, the population factor introduces the powerful per-capita perspective. China’s per-capita emissions are around five tonnes per year, compared to only two tonnes in India or 10 to 12 tonnes for most of Europe, and 20 to 25 tonnes in the United States. Yu ’s words, reported by the Associated Press, explains in no uncertain terms that he could not “accept the argument that I, as a Chinese, am only entitled legally to one quarter of what you are entitled to”, but also acknowledges that “being equal to an American when it comes to per-capita emissions would be a nightmare for the Chinese”. The equitable dimension is one of three core principles (together with efficiency and effectiveness) of Nicholas Stern’s new report Key Elements of a Global Deal on Climate Change, recommending a global target of two tonnes of emissions per person by 2050.

There is the complex link between all these issues that makes China both a perpetrator and victim of climate change: part problem, part solution. In terms of “part solution”, it seems essential to acknowledge what the Chinese see as important progress and goodwill on their side, including: making the pursuit of a balanced (“scientific”) development agenda a priority of Hu Jintao’s presidency; linking the issues of global climate conditions to its domestic environmental protection policies; raising energy efficiency to one of the highest priorities of government (with a target of 20% increased energy efficiency by 2010); seeking to introduce clean technologies in key economic sectors, starting with energy production; and having pursued and maintained a single-child policy.

Indeed, there has been progress. The 1990s witnessed a reduction of CO2 intensity by more than 50% through energy saving regulations, changes in energy subsidies and incentive structures. As for industry, while China has become the world’s factory, some of its energy intensive industries already are adopting more efficient technology (notably steel plants). The government is also promoting a shift towards less energy-intensive industrial sectors, and has been regulating the energy consumption standards of the building and transportation sectors. This is important since the latter sectors are expected to gradually increase their relative contribution to total GDP against a decreased share of the industrial sector.  

Of course, good intentions in policies and rhetoric are often -- some would say too often -- compromised by poor implementation and weak governance. However, in context of the poor performance by high-income countries in meeting the targets set by the Kyoto Protocol and the wider sustainability objectives of Agenda 21, it is understandable that the Chinese feel their efforts should receive recognition. It is also acknowledged that responsibility for greenhouse-gas emissions cannot be allocated by national production levels alone. Should China as producer of energy-intensive goods be held responsible for its emissions (as suggests the regime under the Kyoto Protocol)? Or should consumers be responsible? In 2005, 33% of China’s domestic CO2 emissions were due to production for export. These cheap goods are in demand across the globe, and mainly amongconsumers in rich countries. So who is “responsible”?

A focus on emissions within national borders may miss the point. The tightening alliance of the middle- and lower-income countries (in Kyoto Protocol language, the non-Annex I  G-77+China and G-5 groupings) want acknowledgement of the simple fact that underlying all the calculations and accusations, we are all pursuing the unsustainable development path that has brought significant global inequality. Once again, China’s government position is unequivocal. In the Position Paper of the People’s Republic of China at the 63rd Session of the United Nations General Assembly in September 2008, it states that “climate change is an issue of development, and should be addressed in the context of sustainable development”.

China’s progress to date in terms of addressing the rapid rise in emissions may be criticised for being too little given the size of its contribution. But few could argue that from the perspective of a country with 1.3 billion people, a large proportion of whom are still living on US$2 a day or less, China’s actions are only as irresponsible as the richest 20% of the world’s richest nations emitting 63% of global greenhouse gases. This critique of China is further weakened once we consider that developed nations have largely failed to meet their reduction targets and have fallen short of commitments to transfer funds and technology as designated by the Kyoto Protocol.

It is difficult to see how the poorer 80% of the world should make an effort when the richest 20% have done so little. The dissatisfaction with the existing financial architecture, including the Official Development Assistance target of 0.7% of GNP, is a major obstacle to successful post-Kyoto negotiations. Yu Qingtai warns that “the effectiveness of participation by the developing countries [in the international effort] will, to a significant extent, depend on whether the developed countries will take substantive actions on financial and technological assistance … and capacity building, to facilitate their achievement of sustainable development”.

These views are held by several other developing countries, and are further exacerbated by the idea of historical responsibility, whereby rich nations (especially the United Kingdom, the United States and Japan) that emitted large amounts of greenhouse gases in past decades should take responsibility for their “carbon debt” and take additional measures to reduce future emissions.

Hence the stalemate that is reached every time negotiations shift from asking how to address rising emissions to the more fundamental question: why act? For decades, efforts focused on finding a scientific basis for action. But, as negotiations have shown, it is the issue of responsibility that undermines progress. China -- together with India and Brazil – argue that they are committed to addressing the causes of climate change.

But China will not allow climate-change issues to impede its legitimate development of an industrial and infrastructure base, and thus it will not join the Annex I club, nor take on emission reduction targets quite yet. Nevertheless, there is a disparity between China’s position at the negotiating table for a post-Kyoto agreement and the country’s national interest in addressing the threat that a carbon economy represents for its future.

Economist and government advisor Hu Angang has recommended that it should take a bold approach to climate change: one that links to a broader and more constructive idea of the challenge. He suggests focusing on a low carbon society and, we would add, sustainable development. Hu argues that it is in China’s best interest to adopt targets, as this would turn China into an economic and diplomatic winner.

Indeed, the Climate Group suggests that China has one of the world’s strongest growth rates in low-carbon industries, leading to a “real possibility” that China will transform into a global low-carbon leader. If this path is taken, experts suggest that China would overcome the constraints caused by dependence on coal (and thus high CO2 emissions), achieve economic development and energy security, reduce the threat from climate and attain diplomatic recognition.

Ultimately, China is only part of the problem and thus can only be part of the solution. However, what seems unquestionable is the need to engage China in a constructive dialogue. The potential for positive outcomes is high and the benefits will spill over other areas of international concern. The country is demonstrating progress towards a low-carbon economy (albeit with all its limits), and vision for a future of moderate prosperity. The urgency of the situation demands recognition of global inequality and efforts in words and deed to build trust in a common future. Only in this context will China accept the global responsibilities that come with its rapid economic rise.


Olivia Bina is a research fellow at the Centre of Philosophy, University of Lisbon, and lead scientist of the European-funded project “Policy Instruments for Chinese Sustainable Future: Environmental Policy Integration and Strategic Environmental Assessment”.

Viriato Soromenho-Marques is a full professor in the department of philosophy, University of Lisbon, and member of the advisory group to the president of the European Commission on Energy and Climate Change.

  Homepage photo by flip.01

 

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半个乐天派

我想,在世界各国正相互踢责任这个皮球时,中国与美国都有自己应对气候变化的方式。要达成理想的后京都议定书看来是不太可能了,我们所能说的仅仅是我们正在努力上道---希望到达目的地的时间不要太迟。

本评论由Ming Li翻译

semi-optimist

I think China, as well as the US, has its own way of dealing with climate while the world is kicking the ball of responsibility. A perfect post-Kyoto treaty seems unlikely, and the best we can say is that we're on the way -- hope it won't be too late to reach the destination.


环境恶化侵蚀人类尊严

人类的生存和发展首先需要有一个良好的环境支持,没有良好环境的支持,就不可能实现人的生存和发展的权利。人们享有环境的权利也是一种自然(天赋)的权利,是与生俱来的;同时又不可分割、不可剥夺的权利。
中国是世界上人口最多的国家,其国土面积居世界第四。在世界主要国家中,中国经济庞大而且增长速度最快,但是它的环境问题最为严重,而且可能进一步恶化。
长期以来,一些地区在追求经济超常规增长、跨越式发展的同时,造成了资源、环境上的严重透支,自然资源超常规开采,污染物超常规排放。一些地区盲目上马一些污染严重的项目,造成一方致富、八方遭殃,当代致富、后代遭殃等严重的环境污染问题。对有限的矿产资源过度开采,靠出售资源换取经济增长,这种资源掠夺式的增长,正在成为摧毁人们生存和发展基石的恶魔,根本无法保证社会一代接一代地永续发展。
我国重工业发展迅速的主要特征是能源消耗高、污染大、效率低、浪费多。按现行汇率初步测算,2006年中国GDP总量占世界的比重约为5.5%,但能源消耗24.6亿吨标准煤,占世界的15%,而且目前煤炭消费占我国一次能源消费的比重为69%,比世界平均水平高出42个百分点。
2010年以来,西南五省区的旱灾已经导致了2000多万人饮水困难。半年以前,内蒙古和辽宁西北的干旱导致大面积粮食绝收。一年以前,华北主要省区冬春连续干旱,国家首次发布了旱灾的红色预警。三年以前,四川、重庆大旱导致大幅粮食减产和上千万人畜饮水困难。
根据《中国地下水资源》丛书中提供的2000年以前的资料显示:北方除了荒漠无人区外,绝大多数地区都面临地下水严重超采问题。华北平原北部在近40年时间内已过度开采了上千亿立方米地下水,留下了巨大的地下库容空间。
21世纪,人们可能会因为长期的无节制开采地下水而出现无水可抽的局面。
比起经济危机来,环境危机对人的生存权和发展权的侵蚀更为深刻,影响更为久远。虽然环境问题并不一定直接表现为对人的自由和平等权利的剥夺,但每一个环境因素都可能成为侵蚀人权的重要根源。因此,所谓环境危机,与其说是人与自然关系的危机,不如说是人与人关系的危机,是人性的危机,是人权的危机。
当今社会,资源环境已经不是一个孤立的问题,环境决策绝不单纯是环境污染治理和环境保护问题,它是与人的生存权和发展权紧密联系在一起的,是与社会政治、经济等问题紧密地联系在一起的。
构建社会主义和谐社会,不仅取决于经济上的成就,更重要的是取决于对人的重视和尊重的程度。
一个和谐的社会,必定是以国家“尊重和保障人权”为灵魂、为引领的社会;必定是人的生存权、发展权得到充分尊重和保障的社会。传统发展模式忽视了不可逆转的环境损失,严重危及人类赖以生存和发展的根基,使相当一部分人连起码的生存要求都得不到满足,更不用说过一种有尊严的生活了。
豪迈

Environmental degradation erodes human dignity

The survival and development of human kind needs to have, first and foremost, good environmental support. Without good environmental support, it is impossible to achieve the human rights of survival and development. The right to the environment enjoyed by people is one kind of natural (innate) right; it is inherent. At the same time it is an integral, inalienable right.
China has the largest population in the world, and its land area ranks fourth in the world. China‘s economy is enormous, with the fastest rate of growth of the major nations in the world. However, the environmental problems in China are the most serious, and will probably worsen further. For a long time, while seeking extraordinary economic growth and rapid development, some areas have caused serious overuse of resources and the environment, exceeding conventional extraction of natural resources and emission of pollutants. Some areas have blindly mounted heavily polluting projects that cause severe environmental pollution problems, allowing a minority to become rich while the majority suffer, allowing the present generation to get rich while future generations suffer. Regarding the excessive extraction of limited mineral resources, the increase in resource plundering, such as relying on the sale of resources in return for economic growth, becomes a demon destroying the cornerstone of people’s survival and development, fundamentally incapable of safeguarding sustainable development from one generation to another. The main characteristics of the rapid development of China’s heavy industry are high energy consumption, large scale pollution, low efficiency, and major waste. By preliminary calculations on the current exchange rate, in 2006 China accounted for about 5.5% of world GDP, but energy consumption stood at 2.46 billion standard tonnes of coal, 15% of world consumption. At present, coal consumption accounts for 69% of China’s first time energy consumption, higher than the world average of 42%.
Since the start of 2010, the drought affecting five south-western provinces has caused drinking water difficulties for more than 20 million people. Six months ago, the drought in the north-western provinces of Inner Mongolia and Liaoning caused widespread crop failure. A year ago, the principle provinces of northern China suffered continuous droughts throughout winter and spring, and for the first time the nation released a red alert for drought. The great drought that hit Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality three years ago caused a substantial loss in crop yield and drinking water difficulties for tens of millions of people and animals.
According to information provided by the series of books “Groundwater Resources of China”, prior to 2000, besides the barren, uninhabited regions of northern China, the overwhelming majority of areas faced serious issues of groundwater overuse. Within the last 40 years, the northern part of the North China Plain has excessively extracted over a hundred billion cubic tonnes of groundwater, leaving an immense underground storage space.
In the 21st Century, people may be in a situation of dehydration due to long term uncontrolled exploitation of groundwater.
Compared with the economic crisis, the environmental crisis is even more deeply eroding to people’s rights to survival and development; its impact is even more long lasting. Even though environmental issues are not directly shown to deprive people of their rights to freedom and equality, every environmental factor can become a significant cause in eroding human rights. Thus, rather than saying this so-called environmental crisis is a crisis in the relationship between people and nature, it would be better to say it is a crisis in the relationship between people and people, a crisis of humanity, a crisis of human rights.
In society at present, resources and the environment are not isolated issues. Environmental policy making is not simply an issue of environmental pollution control and environmental protection; it is closely linked to people’s rights to survival and development; closely linked to social, political and economic issues.
Constructing a harmonious Socialist society depends not only on economic accomplishments, but even more importantly on a level of value and respect for people.
A harmonious society must have “respecting and safeguarding human rights” at the soul of the nation, in order to lead society. It must be a society in which the people’s rights to survival and development have obtained full respect and protection. Traditional development methods ignored irreversible environmental damage and seriously endangered the foundation humanity depends on for survival and development, preventing a considerable proportion of people from obtaining the minimum needs for survival, let alone lead a dignified life.
Hao Mai ("Heroic")


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