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Feeding the nine billion

A temporary drop in prices gives policymakers a crucial window to ensure food security for all. Alex Evans, the author of a new report, presents his recommendations.

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Food prices have fallen significantly from their peak last year, but that doesn’t mean that policymakers can start to heave a sigh of relief. For one thing, prices remain acutely problematic for poor people and poor countries at current levels. Moreover, prices are poised to resume their upwards climb when the world emerges from the downturn.  Accordingly, policymakers need to treat the current easing in prices as a window of opportunity in which to agree the comprehensive, long-term collective action needed to ensure food security for all in the twenty-first century.

This is the central argument of The Feeding of the Nine Billion [pdf], a new report on food prices and scarcity issues published by Chatham House. The report argues that long term demand drivers – a population set to reach over 9 billion by mid-century, and the rising affluence and expectations of a growing “global middle class” – are half the story: the World Bank forecasts 50% higher demand for food by 2030. 

At the same time, scarcity issues will present increasing challenges on the supply side.  Oil prices are set to rise again after the downturn, given that investment in new production has collapsed as oil prices have fallen, setting the stage for a future supply crunch. Food prices are likely to follow them, as biofuels, fertiliser prices and transport costs play their part.  Climate change, water scarcity and competition for land will all also push prices upwards over the longer term.

So what needs to be done?  Four main areas stand out.

First, we need to get a twenty-first century Green Revolution underway, and fast.  Spending on agriculture by aid donors and developing country governments has collapsed over the last 25 years. A similar story applies on research and development. The core task here is to move from today’s unsustainable, input-intensive model of agriculture to one that’s instead knowledge-intensive. Genetically-modified crops could have a part to play, but more ecologically integrated approaches (like integrated soil fertility management) often score higher on equitability and social resilience, given that they diffuse power among farmers rather than concentrating it with seed companies.

Second, we need to scale up social protection systems in developing countries. Today, nearly a billion people don’t have enough to eat.  But as can be seen from the fact that another billion are overweight or obese, the problem is not that there is insufficient food to go around. Instead, it is simply that poor people find food prices beyond their reach. Social protection systems, such as food safety nets, unemployment benefits or school feeding programmes, are a better bet for developing countries than price controls or economy-wide subsidies. They target help where it is needed, and they don’t break the bank. As yet, however, only 20% of the world’s people have access to social protection systems.

Third, there is much to do in the trade context.  One option for policymakers to consider is a globally coordinated system of food stocks, similar to the International Energy Agency’s system for managing oil reserves in an emergency, which would be a way of building resilience to the kind of volatility seen last summer when panic over food prices set in. They also need to think about ways that trade rules can help manage the risk of export suspensions, given that WTO trade rules were built to resolve disputes over market access, not to ensure security of supply. And it remains imperative for developed economies - above all the EU and US - to reform their farm support policies, which have the effect of structurally undermining developing country agriculture.

Finally, there remains the observation that – as Indian independence leader Mahatma Gandhi once put it – there is enough for everyone’s need, but not for everyone’s greed”. The global consumer class has barely begun to recognise that its “western diet”, rich in meat and dairy products, is far more resource-intensive than everyone else’s, whether in terms of grain intensity, water use, energy consumption or greenhouse-gas emissions.  That doesn’t mean everyone has to be vegetarian, but consumers do need to face up to the issues of fair shares involved. A similar point applies on biofuels: not all of them are problematic, but grossly inefficient options like corn-based ethanol have no place in a sustainable or equitable agriculture system.

Inevitably, the question arises of whether the credit crunch and global downturn have concentrated policymakers’ minds on short term economic concerns. There are worrying signals that aid spending is already starting to fall. On the other hand, it is encouraging that the multilateral system remains strongly focused on the triple crisis of food, energy and climate change (as an official from the International Monetary Fund told me, “the last thing we can afford now is another crisis creeping up on us”). 

Another reason for optimism is the astonishing tale of innovation that is the history of agriculture – and the prospects for more of it in the future. At the same time, innovation on its own is clearly not enough. The twentieth-century Green Revolution achieved huge improvements in yield, for instance, but also put huge numbers of agricultural labourers out of work, benefitted larger farmers first and small farmers later (if at all), and largely bypassed Africa. Technical innovation must be matched by political sophistication – and real commitment to social justice.

Above all, there is the hopeful fact that while agriculture has taken 10,000 years to get to where it is today, we could – with hard commitment, but not much sacrifice – reach the more productive, more sustainable, more resilient and more equitable food system that we need within a decade. Storm clouds – economic and otherwise – are gathering. But the prospect of concluding a quest that has lasted the whole duration of human history now lies within reach: ensuring that each of us can live each day of our lives secure in the knowledge that we’ll have enough to eat at the end of it.

Alex Evans is a non-resident fellow at the Center on International Cooperation at New York University and editor of the foreign policy blog, www.GlobalDashboard.org.

 Homepage photo by antkriz

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Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

我们将来能吃什么?

我很担心100年后我们的食物来源。我们会有足够的食物么?在那时候的气候条件下,还能有粮食生长么?我很担心Thomas Malthus的预言会变成现实。
(Translated by Jing Jiang)

where will our food come from?

I'm really worried about where our food will come from in the next 100 years. Will we have enough to eat? Will there even be a climate in which we can grow food? I'm worried about the predictions of Thomas Malthus coming true.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

食品储备

我认为,效仿国际能源机构对石油储备的管理,建立起食品储备这个主意,听起来格外有效。 科学家预测伴随着地球变暖极端天气会增多。因此,为了养活规模将更庞大的人口,我们必须关注如何为粮食短缺做好充分的准备。

Food stocks

I think that the idea of food stocks, modeled off of the International Energy Agency’s management of oil reserves, sounds especially promising. Scientists have predicted that more extreme weather will accompany global warming. As such, and with a greater population to support, we really must be concerned with adequately preparing for food shortages.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

吃的变化

西方人重营养摄入,所以每天要吃大块的肉,比如牛肉,鸡肉等,而传统的中国饮食以素菜为主,肉类为辅。但如今,中国人似乎越来越接受“营养”的观念,加上方便省时的考虑,人们更愿意去吃汉堡了。

Changing What We Eat

Western people are serious about consuming nourishing food, so they eat big pieces of meat every day, like beef, chicken, etc. Traditional Chinese food and drink relies on vegetables, with meat as a supplement. But nowadays, more and more Chinese people have that "nourishment" mindset. And when you add on the convenience of saving time, more people are willing to eat hamburgers.
(Translated by Jacob Fromer)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

农业补贴的冲击

与发达国家相比,发展中国家从事农业的人口要多出很多,在劳动力成本上占有优势。但发达国家的农场主每年能拿到政府的很多补贴,粮食能以低价卖出,直接占据了国际粮食市场,使得发展中国家民众种粮无利可图,甚至直接放弃了种粮食的想法。不知道这种思路是否讲得过去?

The impact of agricultural subsidy

Compared with developed countries, developing countries have a much larger farming population, so they have an advantage in the cost of the labor force. But in developed countries, farmers can get a lot of subsidies from the government every year, and they sell food at a lower price, which sweeps across the international food market immediately. As a result,this process leaves farmers in developing countries in a profitless situation, and some of them are even considering giving up farming. I wonder whether that's how things will work out?
translated by diaoshuhuan

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

中国面临着粮食危机吗

个人认为中国大部分地区还是没有粮食危机的。在此方面所做的事情有两点:一、预测控制由于粮食问题引起的社会稳定问题;二、对偏远贫困地区人们的扶助。两个方面都需要关注,前者是一种预警;后者则是平等的保障。微观上来讲,应该倡导一种健康生态的饮食习惯,素食主义者的行为似乎看起来觉着不可思议,其实也许是非常科学和合理的。

Is China facing food crisis?

Personally, I think there is no food crisis in most parts of China. I have been concerned about two aspects of things in this regard:
The first is that to predict and control the social stability issue caused by food security issues. The second is to give support to people in remote, poverty-stricken areas. Both of these issues need attention: the former is a warning, and the latter is of equal importance. For everyday life, we should advocate healthy, ecological eating habits. Vegetarianism may seem strange, but in fact, it may be very scientific and reasonable.
(Translated by Lulu JIANG)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

食品安全

我们现在的食品安全吗?类似三聚氰氨事件的还有多少没有被公开?我们摆上超市的所谓无公害蔬菜瓜果到底是真的无公害?那些普通蔬菜水果的农药残留符合国家标准就一定安全吗?我们如果不解决食品安全问题的话,中国人什么时候会生不出孩子来?到时再采取措施就什么都晚了。

Food safety

Is our food safe? Like what happened with the melamine accident, how many things have not been exposed? Are the so-called non-polluted vegetables and fruits really clean? When the pesticide residues in common fruits and vegetables are considered in line with the national standards, are they really safe? Will it come to the point when Chinese women are infertile because of poor food safety? At that point, it will be too late to do something.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

素食

你觉得素食在中国是怎样的情况?它是否会成为一种更普遍的吃法?(翻译Michelle Deeter)

vegetarian

What do you think is the state of vegatarians in China? Will it ever become a more popular way of eating?

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

可否从平时少吃肉做起

在生活中,完全不吃肉蛋估计挺困难,在应酬中让主人挺尴尬的,毕竟目前素食主义还只是停留在“时尚”层面,多数中国人还是习惯“食肉者贵”的思维方式。

Can we start from eating less meat?

In reality, it might be difficult to stop eating meat and egg completely. It can be quite embarrassing for your host in social occasions. After all, vegetarianism seems to be merely a 'fashionable' way of life. Most Chinese are used to the idea that 'rich people eat meat'.

(translated by xiulu)

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

素食治标不治本

在保育意识不足的情况下,我认为即使吃素不吃肉,对于解决粮食问题作用不大。

Vegetarianism doesn't help much

Given lack of good eating habits, I think even if we only eat vegetables and no meat, it makes little difference on resolving the food problem.

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meter

可见您没有试过素食

为什么我们要推广素食,与您的意见相反,能标本兼治的,恰恰是素食!
为什么粮食不够,不是我们粮食真的不够,而是我们的欲望太深,深到无底,而素食恰恰是可以让人的身心达到一个合理欲望的生活方式。您愿意试试吗?

you haven't tried vegetarian food yet

Contrary to your opinion, it is vegetarian food that can address both the symptoms and root causes.that's exactly why we are keen in promoting vegetarian diet.

Why is food under tight supply? in fact, it not because we don't have enough food but we have too much insatiable desires.and a vegetarian diet is exactly what you can lead a desire-controld life style with. Would you have a try?