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Why the world struggles to prevent climate chaos

Fear of the distant horrors of climate change isn't enough to drive anything more than just political talk and hand-wringing

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Humanity is conducting a irreversible climate experiment with the only home it is likely to have, says Wolf. (Image by Greenpeace showing the aftermath of Hurricane Sandy in 2012)

Earlier this month, the concentration of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere was reported to have passed 400 parts per million for the first time in 4.5 million years. It is also continuing to rise at a rate of about 2 parts per million every year. On the present course, it could be 800 parts per million by the end of the century. Thus, all the discussions of mitigating the risks of catastrophic climate change have turned out to be empty words.

Collectively, humanity has yawned and decided to let the dangers mount. Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, director of the Grantham Institute for Climate Change at Imperial College in London, notes that when the concentrations were last this high, “the world was warmer on average by three or four degrees Celsius than it is today. There was no permanent ice sheet on Greenland, sea levels were much higher, and the world was a very different place, although not all of these differences may be directly related to CO2 levels.”

Read also: The psychology of climate change: why we do nothing

His caveat is proper. Nonetheless, the greenhouse effect is basic science: it is why the earth has a more pleasant climate than the moon. CO2 is a known greenhouse gas. There are positive feedback effects from rising temperatures, via, for example, the quantity of water vapour in the atmosphere. In brief, humanity is conducting a huge, uncontrolled and almost certainly irreversible climate experiment with the only home it is likely to have. Moreover, if one judges by the basic science and the opinions of the vast majority of qualified scientists, risk of calamitous change is large.

What makes the inaction more remarkable is that we have been hearing so much hysteria about the dire consequences of piling up a big burden of public debt on our children and grandchildren. But all that is being bequeathed is financial claims of some people on other people. If the worst comes to the worst, a default will occur. Some people will be unhappy. But life will go on. Bequeathing a planet in climatic chaos is a rather bigger concern. There is nowhere else for people to go and no way to reset the planet’s climate system. If we are to take a prudential view of public finances, we should surely take a prudential view of something irreversible and much costlier.

So why are we behaving like this?

The first and deepest reason is that, as the civilisation of ancient Rome was built on slaves, ours is built on fossil fuels. What happened in the beginning of the 19th century was not an “industrial revolution” but an “energy revolution”. Putting carbon into the atmosphere is what we do.

As I have argued in Climate Policy, what used to be the energy-intensive lifestyle of today’s high-income countries has gone global. Economic convergence between emerging and high-income countries is increasing demand for energy faster than improved energy efficiency is reducing it. Not only aggregate CO2 emissions but even emissions per head are rising. The latter is partly driven by China’s reliance on coal-powered electricity generation.

A second reason is opposition to any interventions in the free market. Some of this, no doubt, is driven by narrowly economic interests. But do not underestimate the power of ideas. To admit that a free economy generates a vast global external cost is to admit that the large-scale government regulation so often proposed by hated environmentalists is justified. For many libertarians or classical liberals, the very idea is unsupportable. It is far easier to deny the relevance of the science.

A symptom of this is clutching at straws. It is noted, for example, that average global temperatures have not risen recently, though they are far higher than a century ago. Yet periods of falling temperature within a rising trend have occurred before.

A third reason may be the pressure of responding to immediate crises that has consumed almost all the attention of policymakers in the high-income countries since 2007.

A fourth is a touching confidence that, should the worst come to the worst, human ingenuity will find some clever ways of managing the worst results of climate change.

A fifth is the complexity of reaching effective and enforceable global agreements on the control of emissions among so many countries. Not surprisingly, the actual agreements reached give more an appearance of action than a reality.

A sixth is indifference to the interests of people to be born in a relatively distant future. As the old line goes: “Why should I care about future generations? What have they ever done for me?”

A final (and related) reason is the need to strike a just balance between poor countries and rich ones and between those who emitted most of the greenhouse gases in the past and those who will emit in the future.

The more one thinks about the challenge, the more impossible it is to envisage effective action. We will, instead, watch the rise in global concentrations of greenhouse gases. If it turns out to lead to a disaster, it will by then be far too late to do anything much about it.

So what might shift such a course? My view is, increasingly, that there is no point in making moral demands. People will not do something on this scale because they care about others, even including their own more remote descendants. They mostly care rather too much about themselves for that.

Most people believe today that a low-carbon economy would be one of universal privation. They will never accept such a situation. This is true both of the people of high-income countries, who want to retain what they have, and the people of the rest of the world, who want to enjoy what the people of high-income countries now have.

A necessary, albeit not sufficient condition, then, is a politically sellable vision of a prosperous low-carbon economy. That is not what people now see. Substantial resources must be invested in the technologies that would credibly deliver such a future.

Yet that is not all. If such an opportunity does appear more credible, institutions must also be developed that can deliver it.

Neither the technological nor the institutional conditions exist at present. In their absence, there is no political will to do anything real about the process driving our experiment with the climate. Yes, there is talk and wringing of hands. But there is, predictably, no effective action. If that is to change, we must start by offering humanity a far better future. Fear of distant horror is not enough.

 

 

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匿名 | Anonymous

为什么最近的很多文章都是从FT 转来的?

为什么现在中外对话的很多专题都是来自于FT的报道?所有的记者都给自己的特定读者群供稿!感觉那些商务人士(如短期投资者通常分享关于强硬的热钱流出资本家的报道),他们为环境做出一点真实的贡献的可能性很低。而且,对我来说,读者群的年龄是最重要的(就像是拇指规则,因为我看见过一些年长但同情心很少的人)。而越年轻的人就约愿意花费时间在这些问题上(那些时尚达人和主流的文化垃圾爱好者除外)。根据美国环球公司的权威调查,这些人是最有影响力的读者群。我参加过许多次环球公司的会议,与会者多为40岁以下的青年企业家,年龄差别很大。这些人中间没有社会企业家。只有之前担任过传统型高污染企业的高层的银行领导人。希望你们能选取更多来自《卫报》的文章,如果是独立撰稿人的话会更好,至少《经济学人》的也比FT要好。

Why so many recent articles from the FT reposted here?

Why is CD featuring so much from the FT nowadays? All journalists write to their demographic*! Feel like business (as usual, i.e. short-termist share reports hardline hot-money-flow capitalists*) people are the most unlikely to make any real changes that benefit the environment. Besides, age demographics seem to me everything; (as a rule of thumb, since I do see some older guys showing ounces/iotas of remorse) as the age is younger the more people seem willing to give this issue the time of day (fashionista/mainstream junk culturistas aside). *According to authoritative GLOBAL CAPITAL MARKETS survey it is the most influential read. Says it all (have attended many a Global Capital Markets conference where demographic quite radically different from young aged under 40 year old entrepreneurs. No social entrepreneurs either. Just captains of banks who generally predominantly have served high-polluting traditional industries. Keep it real: maybe more articles from The Guardian, or, even better, the Indie, or at least the Economist instead of the FT.

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匿名 | Anonymous

上一条评论的限定

我刚刚发了上一条评论。请不要误解我:我认为这是一篇写得非常好也很及时的文章。我只是有一点反对,我相信已经有很多人开始试图资助这些事情,建立一些组织,但是大多数FT的既定读者由于太忙于其他事情而不大可能会响应最后3个自然段号召。

Qualification of last comment.

I just posted the last comment. Please don't get me wrong: I believe that this IS A VERY WELL-WRITTEN AND ON CUE ARTICLE. Just SLIGHTLY object merely because I believe that already many people have started to try to fund those things and build those organisations but most of the vested readers of the FT are too vested in other things to be the ones most likely to take up his call in the last 3 paragraphs.