中国与世界,环境危机大家谈

china and the world discuss the environment

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Rstcyrmd's 资料 Profile

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rstcyrmd
Richard Saint Cyr MD

加入本网站时间 Member Since 08 December 2011

Rstcyrmd's 评论 comments

出色的研究

祝贺史蒂夫提供了如此详尽的数据考察。数年来我一直在博客上谈论这件事情并传播美国大使馆的反馈,但我也一直期待有人可以真正地处理分析这些数据来做比较。这是目前为止我在这个议题上看到的最充分的研究文章,我已经将它作为必读文章转发给其它朋友。

Outstanding research

Steven, congratulations on providing such a thorough examination of the data. I have been pushing this issue on my blog for years and promoting the US Embassy's feed, but I've always hoped someone would actually crunch the numbers for true comparisons. This is by far the most researched piece I've seen on this issue, and I am already forwarding it to others as a must-read.

澄清数据?

史蒂文,我希望你能澄清一些要点:

1。你能更具体地阐述一下,过去2年美国大使馆的平均PM2.5的数值是在100微克吗?每年的确切数字是多少?你是如何计算这个数据的 ——我假定您从24小时的Twitter记录中,取每个中午的平均值?

2。死亡率的问题始终是一个巨大的问题,我在北京诊所的病人总是问我。你说洛杉矶的“预期寿命可能增加超过5年”。能请你澄清:在波普的研究中,他跟踪记录研究对象多少年?换句话说,这个5年的结果,是根据20年的数据,还是8年的数据而得来的呢?你是怎么计算出这个效果?不要忘记,即使波普说肺癌的影响是线性的,但心血管疾病的影响却是非线性的,并且是变平的。你能带我们好好理清一下你的计算吗?

3。还有一个类似的说明,这些死亡率估计是“长期的”。你能推断这个中期或短期的时长吗?如果有人在北京一年一年地生活,他们的死亡率增加的几率有多大?如果你不知道,你见过的最合适的数据是什么?

Clarify the data?

Steven, I'm hoping you can clarify some points:

1. Can you be more specific as to your claim that US Embassy's average PM2.5 is 100 ug/m3 for the last 2 years? What's the exact number for each year? And how did you tally this data -- I assume you simply took the 24-hour Twitter results from each noontime and averaged it?

2. This issue of mortality is always a huge question my patients always ask me in clinic here in Beijing. You state "life expectancy may increase over 5 years" compared to LA. Can you please clarify: in Pope's study, how many years had he been tracking people, in other words was this 5-year effect noted after 20 years of data, 8 years, etc? And how did you calculate this effect? Don't forget that even Pope mentions that lung cancer effect is linear, but cardiovascular effect is NON-linear and flattens out. Can you walk us through the math you did?

3. And on a similar note, these mortality estimates are "long-term". Can you extrapolate this data to medium or short-term stays? So if someone lives in Beijing for a year-year post, what is their increased mortality risk? If you don't know, what's the best data you've seen on this?

我们已经在第二阶段了吗?

多谢您有说服力的文章,尤其是您提出的四步路线图。中国正在迅速发展第一阶段,全国各地PM2.5检测如雨后春笋般出现,这真是令人惊讶。但是随着健康影响越来越为人所知,我真心同意您对于中国儿童的担忧。我认为您所说的“第二步”——设立适当的警报——才是关键。很关键的一步是为中国教育系统开展“空气污染行动计划”,这在像洛杉矶这样的污染城市很常见;很多学校现在取消了空气质量指数超过200情况下的户外活动。很多北京的国际学校已经有了这样的行动计划,现在有官方的PM2.5检测仪器,希望地方学习也能提供这样的保护措施。

Are we in phase 2 already?

Thanks for an eloquent piece, especially your roadmap of 4 steps. It's astonishing how quickly (finally) China is developing the first step, with PM2.5 monitors mushrooming all over China. But I heartily agree with your worries about China's children, as the health effects are well documented. I think your "step 2" -- setting up appropriate alerts -- are key. One major step is for all school systems in China to develop "air pollution action plans" which are common in polluted cities such as the Los Angeles area; many schools now cancel all outdoor activities for an AQI over 200. Many international schools in Beijing already have such action plans, and now that there are official PM2.5 monitors, hopefully local schools can now offer the same protection.

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