tdeanxx 加入本网站时间 Member Since 16 December 2010 Tdeanxx's 评论 comments 中国：走向最优发展道路 最近，我也走访了中国并对其公共交通的迅猛发展感到十分惊讶。两年前我也曾访问过中国，在这两年时间里，中国东部沿海新建了一个世界级的高速铁路系统。在中国的西部城市成都，公交车已经不再使用难闻的柴油，转而使用清洁的天热气作为能源。中国正在向世界证明，一个由受过良好教育的有才华的官员们领导的中央政府，完全有能力制定出发展重要基础设施建设的政策，来为人民提供方便快捷的、不会对健康有害的上下班交通工具。中国领导人已经认识到正确规划和组织快速发展以及使用先进的信息与电脑技术的重要性，他们取得了极大的成功，让其他的亚洲国家甚至是美国都望尘莫及。如今，美国的基础设施系统崩塌；经济体由于大企业的政治影响而腐败，风雨飘摇中从巅峰跌落至谷底。与此同时，中国的经济正稳步地增长着。 China: Moving Along the Optimum Path I, too, have travelled through China recently and was astounded by the speed of the development of public transport in China. In the two years since I last visited China, a world class high speed rail system has sprung up along the east coast and cities like Chengdu in western China have transitioned from smelly, diesel busses and taxis to clean natural gas powered vehicles. China is showing the world that a central government dedicated to the interests and well-being of the entire population, run by talented and well-educated bureaucrats, can create optimal policies to develop critical infrastructure that enables the people to get to and from work efficiently and without destroying their health in the process. The leaders of China have recognized the critical need to plan and organize rapid development and utilizing modern information and computer technologies, they are achieving amazing success, leaving other Asian nations, as well as the US, in their dust. While infrastructure in the US literally collapses in a heap and the economy, corrupted by giant corporations' political influence, lurches chaotically from boom to bust, China's economy surges smoothly forward. 悲观主义抑或“灾难情景”？ 我并未拜读以上所讨论的那本书，然而，根据科普塞的讨论，我不得不怀疑他/她是否已将风险加权分析与恐惧渲染术连同悲观论调糅杂在了一起。即便人类——由于人为气候变化——将于下个世纪灭绝的可能性仅有百分之一，那也仍是一个非常巨大的，需要我们严肃考虑的风险。然在我看来，以科学为依据的项目以及建模——它们的概率本质——不过是拒绝论者用来讨好能源巨头的工具；利用这些建模迷惑公众，将人们的注意力转移到质疑气候变化“争辩”的科学支撑上来。我不认为科普塞的讨论对于此问题有建设性的贡献。 Pessimism or "Worst Case Scenario"? While I have not read the book in question, based on Copsey's discussion, I have to wonder if he/she isn't conflating risk weighted analysis with fearmongering and pessimism. Even if there is only a 1% chance that our species will preside over a mass extinction in the next century due to anthropogenic climate change, that is still a very, very significant risk and needs to be seriously considered. It seems to me that the fundamentally probabilistic nature of science and scientifically based projections and modeling is what has allowed the denialists serving their masters in the energy industries to confuse the public so effectively to focus on doubting the very, very solid science underpinning the climate change "debate". I don't see Copsey's discussion of the topic via this review as a constructive contribution to the debate. 公开意味着承兑责任 作为一个外国人，我被禁止拍摄在北京楼房暖气系统装载煤炭的情景，那时我意识到政府部门与排放机构的利益关联。 任何高度重视且致力于提高人民的幸福感及正义的政府（我相信中国政府也是其中之一），都有明确的责任确保人们了解污染排放物带来的危害，以便做出有效的纠正和补偿。 由于当地政府偏好于与其他地区对比经济发展，以及拥有潜在的责任允许或忽视污染的源头，像公开这种强迫性的任务不能由当地政府去解决。 我个人对中科院提出的注重科学优化发展方案印象十分深刻，但是应该号召这个中央政府机构提供切实的计划和方法来监视污染源以及从数量上评估成本和对环境的整体价值。 Disclosure Means Acceptance of Liability As a foreigner who was prohibited from taking a picture of coal being loaded into a Beijing building's heating system, I came to understand that there are huge liability issues associated with pollution emissions generated by or allowed by government entities. It is clear that any government that highly values improving the well-being and justice for its people, as I believe the Chinese government does, has a clear responsibility to ensure that the population can determine and understand the degree of damage caused by emissions of pollution so that remediation and just compensation can be effected. The task of compelling such disclosures cannot be left in the hands of local governments, since they compete with other entities for economic development and have huge potential liabilities for allowing or ignoring pollution sources. I am extremely impressed with the emphasis on scientifically optimized development plans produced by the Chinese Academy of Sciences, but this organ of the central government must be called upon to provide the plans and the means to monitor pollution sources and to quantitatively evaluate the costs to people and the general value of the environment. 水电站及大坝诱发地震活动 蒋的文章谈到了在林区及山区建立水电站的环境代价，但却并未提及2008年四川大地震与紫平铺大坝之间的可能性关联。科学家对两者之间的联系已经有过争论，但作为一个地球物理学家，我想说的是，这个致使数千人失去生命，五百万人流离失所的巨大灾难很有可能与这个地震有关联。地壳活跃地带的断裂层往往十分接近断裂点，而临近断裂带的坝体填筑致使蓄水压力突变可能引发断裂带的突然断裂，即便该区域可能长期处于非地震活跃区。人们所讨论的四川断裂带距离紫平铺大坝只有1公里，在地震爆发的几个月内一直是蓄满水的。去年，我对这个地方进行了视察，可以肯定地说大坝本身没有坍塌已是不幸中的万幸，否则洪水可能席卷成都，三峡大坝可能遭遇击溃。这是一个很重要的例子，也显明了在开发地形复杂的山区中科学判断人类及自然环境代价的重要性与艰巨性。 Hydro-power and Dam Induced Seismicity Jiang’s article touches on the environmental costs of hydropower in forested, mountainous areas, but didn’t mention the likely connection between the Zipingpu dam and the great Sichuan earthquake of 2008. The connection has been debated by scientists, but as a geophysicist, I would say that this great disaster that killed thousands and left five million homeless very likely can be linked to the quake. Faults in tectonically active areas are always very near the rupture point, and a sudden change in the hydrological pressure due to a dam filling near a fault can cause the fault to fail abruptly, even if it has been seismically inactive for long periods of time. The Sichuan fault in question passed within a kilometer of the Zipingpu dam, which was filled to capacity within months of the earthquake. I visited the area last year and can say with some certainty that it is extremely fortunate that the dam itself did not fail, possibly leading to the flooding of Chengdu and the overwhelming of the Three Gorges Dam. This is an important example of the importance and difficulty of scientifically determining the human and environmental costs of development in complex mountainous regions 好文章！ 在过去的五年中，我去过几次中国。在中国中央政府的鼓励下，中国传统的价值观明显地呈现出了再度繁荣的景象，我对此深受鼓舞。以和平，统一，和谐特征为基础的传统理念确实与环境可持续性社会的要求完全吻合。我感觉中国也在努力尽快实现这种转型。文化大革命试图摒弃中国的传统价值，支持西方马克思主义，它所带来的创伤和影响似乎已经基本痊愈。取而代之的是邓小平同志的对外开放和科学实用主义，使得中国人民摆脱了贫困，并且正向着与自然保持和谐的方向迈进。祝贺中国人民！ Tremendous Article! Having visited China several times over the last five years, I have been heartened by the obvious re-flowering of traditional Chinese values with the encouragement of the Central Government. The underpinning of peace, unity and harmony characteristic of traditional philosophy indeed fits perfectly with the requirements of an environmentally sustainable society and it seems clear to me that China is making that transition nearly as quickly as is possible. The wounds and impact of the Cultural Revolution that sought to excise Chinese traditional values in favor of Western Marxism seem to have been nearly completely healed and replaced with Deng's openness and scientific pragmatism that is eliminating poverty and moving toward harmony with nature. Congratulations to the people of China!