博客 Blog

Will Beijing's $277 billion air pollution plan work?

The release of air pollution targets has provoked discussion about how to best clean up China’s dirty air

Article image

Chronic air pollution means there are few blue sky days in Beijing (Image by Greenpeace)

Beijing's deteriorating air quality has created public anger and forced the authorities to be more open about the severity of the problem. Pressure for a lasting solution from central government continues to increase and a major announcement is expected this month.

On July 24 some early details of these plans were released. The Airborne Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan (2013-17) will be the second initiative to tackle pollution in the past two years and will be backed by 1,700 trillion yuan (US$277 billion) in total investments from the central government. 

chinadialogue 
asked a number of leading experts from industry and academia for their opinions on the plans:

Steven Q Andrews is an environmental and legal consultant based in Beijing. 

“Last week, the deputy mayor of Beijing announced a target of decreasing particulate (PM2.5) concentrations by 25% in the next five years based on 2012 concentrations. Compared to the slow improvement in the official numbers over the past decade, the new targets are ambitious and will be difficult to achieve. Officially reported particulate concentrations (PM10) in Bejiing have only decreased by approximately 23% in the past 10 years, and approximately 11% in the last five years. 

But these officially reported improvements don’t account for changes in monitoring locations that have resulted in significantly lower official concentrations. Even worse, air pollution in Beijing has been significantly worse this year. Based on US Embassy data, particulate concentrations (PM2.5) in Beijing have been approximately 25% higher in the first six months of this year compared to last year.

The central government also recently released plans to invest 1.7 trillion yuan (US $277 billion) to control pollution during the next five years. Although announced in China Daily as a “Tougher plan to reduce air pollution”, at present nothing appears tough about the plan. The brutally high levels of air pollution in Beijing and across China cause severe health impacts and trillions of yuan in economic damage. Substantial and expensive investment in pollution control technologies is absolutely necessary. However, it is unclear how this planned investment will be spent. While the recently announced environmental targets and investment plan for pollution control may help improve air quality, stronger enforcement and active public participation will help ensure that it does.”

Wu Changhua is the
Greater China Director of The Climate Group and an environment and development policy analyst.

“While the targets are set mostly to address the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei regional air pollution issues, I believe that other regions will quickly join the league. Air pollution is no longer a challenge concentrated in just northern China, rather, it is already blanketing a vast area of the country.

There are a few other points I would make:

1) If we take the set targets as given, we need to understand what major actions will be taken to achieve them. Coal consumption will probably be addressed. first. Not only a reduction of coal consumption, but critically, substituting coal for cleaner energy. National gas, renewables, electrification of transportation, and much cleaner coal will probably form the largest part of the supply side. On the demand side, this region will showcase the most energy efficient performance in industrial, building and transportation sectors. And the highest fuel standard will be adopted, closer to the EU’s most restrictive level.

2) If the most aggressive action is only taken in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, it won't be surprising if some heavy industries relocate to other "pollution heavens" [i.e. where regulations are less strict]. The central and western part of the country is at a critical juncture to take-off economically, by achieving another doubling of total and per capital GDP. Steps taken in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region will naturally have major repercussions in those regions. What's needed is a national vision regarding planning and enforcement in order to effectively address air pollution issues.

3) The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region has the highest concentration of R&D capability and capacity in China. If properly tapped, it could become the centre of the solution to China's environmental challenges, in particular air pollution. The 1.7-trillion yuan budget, if used well, could trigger a clean revolution at the regional level in China, involving the largest ever deployment of clean technology.

4) The highest levels of energy efficiency will be implemented in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region. This will cover construction, transportation and consumer products. Green building codes, LED lighting, renewable energy, and clean coal power generation will become part of the features of this regional clean revolution. 

Market demand for energy efficient products and services is key to the success of a clean revolution. Consumer awareness and willingness to pay is critical for achieving the air pollution emission reduction targets. I expect a much stronger partnership among government, business and civil society to mobilise the largest possible market demand for a clean revolution."

Angel Hsu is a Post-doctoral Associate at Yale University and Director of the Environmental Performance Measurement Program at the Yale Center for Environmental Law and Policy

"Following a series of extreme air pollution events this year, China’s Ministry of Environmental Protection (MEP) has released a new plan to tackle air pollution. According to China Daily, the plan, which was approved by the State Council last month, will be supported by 1,700 billion yuan (US $277 billion) in total investments by the central government. To put this amount of financial backing in perspective, the 1990 U.S. Clean Air Act Amendments cost US $85 billion in comparison. 

Unsurprisingly, the plan’s major focus will be on PM2.5, setting stricter limits for major urban areas to achieve a 25% reduction from 2012 levels by 2017.  In practice, for major megacities like Beijing, which averaged around 124 μg/m3 of PM10 (coarse particle pollution) in 2011, cutting 25 % will still mean levels well above the WHO recommended level of 10 μg/m3.  Nonetheless, it’s a strong indication from the top levels of Chinese leadership that the central government is making air pollution control a priority.

Another positive step is that many cities within China have already updated their own PM2.5 reduction targets for 60 micrograms per cubic meter by 2017, which is the WHO interim target.  It remains to be seen whether these targets will be further revised after implementation of the new plan is underway.  Earlier this year, the MEP also urged the 113 key environmental cities to release PM2.5 data ahead of schedule, by October as opposed to the original requirement for the end of year."  



 

Now more than ever…

chinadialogue is at the heart of the battle for truth on climate change and its challenges at this critical time.

Our readers are valued by us and now, for the first time, we are asking for your support to help maintain the rigorous, honest reporting and analysis on climate change that you value in a 'post-truth' era.

Support chinadialogue

发表评论 Post a comment

评论通过管理员审核后翻译成中文或英文。 最大字符 1200。

Comments are translated into either Chinese or English after being moderated. Maximum characters 1200.

评论 comments

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

关于首个污染治理规划的问题

这篇文章提到这是过去两年内颁布的第二部污染治理规划。请问你知道第一部污染规划是什么吗?我做过一些搜索,但我无法判断哪个是第一个。

Question about the first initiative to tackle pollution

Hi, this article mentioned that this is the 2nd initiative to tackle pollution in 2 years. Do you know which initiative is the first within the last 2 years? I did some quick research but I can't seem to identify which one is the "last one."

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

花多少钱,模式不改,也没有用

问题很简单,我们的发展从一开始就不计代价,资源上,吃子孙饭;对待环境,做断子绝孙事。最后的结果比赵本山小品中说得还惨:钱没了,人也没了!别动辄拿伦敦也曾是雾都替自己遮羞,人家是哪年的事?况且别人走过的弯路,我们为什么还要重走,还变本加利?GDP高于一切,再加上各级官员的政绩冲动,有这样的结果,是我们应得的!这一切,是money
能解决的吗?

However much money is spent, the method wont change and is useless

The issue is simple: since the beginning, our development has ignored costs, natural resources, food, issues of the environment and our offspring. The final result is still gloomy; the money is gone, and the people are gone!
Let's not keep using London's fog as a cover-up for our own scandals. People, which year did this happen? Moreover, given the roundabout route that others have taken, why do we still want to follow?
Given the placing of GDP above all, and the pursuit of achievements from officials at every level, this outcome is what we deserve! Everything is about money. Can we really solve this?

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

现有解决方法已被证实能够降低污染

作为一个外国专家,我帮助过中国利用低成本甚至零成本的方法来解决发电站排放氮氧化物、硫氧化物、汞、二氧化碳和甲烷的问题。我引进过2006年的外国专家技术,通过将专用隔离植被种植到沙漠中来获得土壤食品饲料的方法降低了二氧化碳水平。同时我也采取北美的技术来减少煤电站二氧化碳的排放。煤实际上就是火山。2011年之前,我在中国境内建造了许多排污池。我的助理忘记了更新我的外国专家证明和中国签证。中国“古老的法律”规定:“如果你在中国逗留的时间超过了签证的日期,你要受到两年的刑罚。”修复沙地和帮助农民过上自给自足的生活对中国来说并不紧要。根据“古老的法律”进行处罚才是更重要的!
缺乏认识的人们并不知道,用风能和太阳能发电,建造电网的过程中排放的污染物需要进行10到14年的发电才能补偿,而电网的寿命也仅有15年。在联合国气候变化框架公约的排放权交易中,这项基于科学、通过进行专业碳交易的新技术将能够资助上述所有中国境内的污染修复方法。

Solutions already proven to lower pollution

I respond as a recognized person involved in setting in place in China low to zero cost solutions to offset emissions Nox Sox Mercury CO2 CH4 from power stations. I introduced as a Invited foreign expert 2006 technology to lower CO2e by dedicated sequestering vegetation into desert to grow soil food fodder. I also introduced North American technology to remove the above emission out of coal fired station. Coal is de-facto volcanoes. I planted sinks across PRC up until 2011. My assistant forgot to renew my Foreign Expert Certificate and visa. The ancient laws of PRC “if you overstay Visa you must be penalized for 2 years”. Repairing deserts and training Farmers to become self sufficient can wait according to PRC. Penalizing under ancient laws is much more important!
Ill-informed people do not understand Wind and solar take 10-14 years to payback the emissions from raw material to erection hook to grid in a 15year life cycle.
Under UNFCCC emission trading rules this science based technologies would via professional carbon trading will fund all the above repairs across PRC. (See Google and emissiontraders.com.au) to establish my (our) expertise

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

节省能源的基础设施?

吴昌华说:“中国最高级别的能效标准将会集中在京津冀地区”。也许是这样。但是,中国所有现有的基础设施正好相反。如果想带来真正的改变,中国的每一栋建筑将必须被拆除,并根据欧洲,比如德国、瑞士的能效标准重建。所以,即使他们现在已经开始这么做了(尽管我非常怀疑),想要使新的基础设施弥补现有基础设施带来的深重影响,也还要花费很长时间。

Energy efficient infrastructure?

Wu Changhua says "the highest levels of energy efficiency will be implemented in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region". Maybe. But, all existing infrastructure in China is the exact opposite. In order to bring real change, every single building in China would have to be destroyed and rebuilt according to efficiency standards one finds in European countries like Germany and Switzerland (and only there, really...) So, even if they start doing this now (which I highly doubt), it will take a long time before this new infrastructure will be able to offset the abysmal consequences of the existing infrastructure.

Default avatar
匿名 | Anonymous

25%的PM 2.5

25%的PM 2.5至少是可以实现的,这说明他们认识到这个问题会需要很长的时间才能解决。取代采煤场和天然气是个好计划,应该加快实施。但是为什么没有提到核能?中国在建设更多的核电站,加起来比全世界的核电厂数目都要多!其可能产生的安全问题是显而易见的。

25% pm2.5

25% pm2.5 is at least realistic. ie, they are recognizing this will take a LONG time to fix. The replacement of coal plants / natural gas is a good plan and must be accelerated. And why no mentioned of nuclear? China is building more nuclear plants than the rest of the world combined!! Which begs the obvious question of how safe they will be.